China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing Reuters poll expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%, driven by robust exports and policy stimulus amid ongoing property sector weakness. This strong start supports trader consensus favoring 4.0–5.0% full-year growth at 67%, aligning with the government's March Two Sessions target of 4.5–5% and recent IMF downward revision to 4.4% from geopolitical risks including the Iran conflict and subdued domestic demand. The 28% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflect optimism from Q1 momentum and fiscal measures, while lower probabilities for extremes underscore structural drags like real estate deleveraging and potential trade tensions, with H1 data and further stimulus key catalysts ahead.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi%4,0–%5,0 68%
%5,0–%6,0 28.3%
%1,0'ın altında 1.2%
%6,0-%7,0 1.2%
$261,362 Hac.
$261,362 Hac.
31 Oca 2026
%1,0'ın altında
1%
%1,0–%2,0
1%
%2,0–%3,0
1%
%3,0–%4,0
1%
%4,0–%5,0
68%
%5,0–%6,0
28%
%6,0-%7,0
1%
%7,0–%8,0
<1%
%8,0–%9,0
1%
%9,0+
<1%
%4,0–%5,0 68%
%5,0–%6,0 28.3%
%1,0'ın altında 1.2%
%6,0-%7,0 1.2%
$261,362 Hac.
$261,362 Hac.
31 Oca 2026
%1,0'ın altında
$22,994 Hac.
1%
%1,0–%2,0
$27,522 Hac.
1%
%2,0–%3,0
$6,756 Hac.
1%
%3,0–%4,0
$10,581 Hac.
1%
%4,0–%5,0
$45,262 Hac.
68%
%5,0–%6,0
$22,325 Hac.
28%
%6,0-%7,0
$19,775 Hac.
1%
%7,0–%8,0
$29,918 Hac.
<1%
%8,0–%9,0
$7,080 Hac.
1%
%9,0+
$69,148 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing Reuters poll expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%, driven by robust exports and policy stimulus amid ongoing property sector weakness. This strong start supports trader consensus favoring 4.0–5.0% full-year growth at 67%, aligning with the government's March Two Sessions target of 4.5–5% and recent IMF downward revision to 4.4% from geopolitical risks including the Iran conflict and subdued domestic demand. The 28% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflect optimism from Q1 momentum and fiscal measures, while lower probabilities for extremes underscore structural drags like real estate deleveraging and potential trade tensions, with H1 data and further stimulus key catalysts ahead.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Hacim
$261,362Bitiş Tarihi
31 Oca 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing Reuters poll expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%, driven by robust exports and policy stimulus amid ongoing property sector weakness. This strong start supports trader consensus favoring 4.0–5.0% full-year growth at 67%, aligning with the government's March Two Sessions target of 4.5–5% and recent IMF downward revision to 4.4% from geopolitical risks including the Iran conflict and subdued domestic demand. The 28% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflect optimism from Q1 momentum and fiscal measures, while lower probabilities for extremes underscore structural drags like real estate deleveraging and potential trade tensions, with H1 data and further stimulus key catalysts ahead.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$261,362Bitiş Tarihi
31 Oca 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing Reuters poll expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%, driven by robust exports and policy stimulus amid ongoing property sector weakness. This strong start supports trader consensus favoring 4.0–5.0% full-year growth at 67%, aligning with the government's March Two Sessions target of 4.5–5% and recent IMF downward revision to 4.4% from geopolitical risks including the Iran conflict and subdued domestic demand. The 28% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflect optimism from Q1 momentum and fiscal measures, while lower probabilities for extremes underscore structural drags like real estate deleveraging and potential trade tensions, with H1 data and further stimulus key catalysts ahead.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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