Polymarket traders price a modest Q1 2026 UK GDP expansion in the 0.3-0.6% range at 37.6% implied probability, closely trailed by 0.6-0.9% (28.6%) and 0.0-0.3% (22.5%), reflecting competitive sentiment amid January's flat monthly GDP print (0.0% month-on-month, released March 13) and softening March flash composite PMI at 51.0—signaling stagnation after 53.7 in February. Rising unemployment to 5.2% (November-January data, March 19) and OBR's downgraded 1.1% full-year growth forecast (March 3) temper optimism, contrasting Bank of England projections implying ~0.2% quarterly. Key differentiator: tomorrow's (April 16) February monthly GDP release, pivotal for Q1 trajectory before ONS quarterly estimate late April.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi0.3-0.6% 37.6%
0.6-0.9% 27.1%
0.0-0.3% 23%
0.9-1.2% 12.8%
$22,686 Hac.
$22,686 Hac.
14 May 2026
Negative
6%
0.0-0.3%
23%
0.3-0.6%
38%
0.6-0.9%
27%
0.9-1.2%
7%
1.2-1.5%
1%
1.5-1.8%
<1%
1.8%+
2%
0.3-0.6% 37.6%
0.6-0.9% 27.1%
0.0-0.3% 23%
0.9-1.2% 12.8%
$22,686 Hac.
$22,686 Hac.
14 May 2026
Negative
$1,899 Hac.
6%
0.0-0.3%
$9,446 Hac.
23%
0.3-0.6%
$1,359 Hac.
38%
0.6-0.9%
$7,124 Hac.
27%
0.9-1.2%
$650 Hac.
7%
1.2-1.5%
$663 Hac.
1%
1.5-1.8%
$576 Hac.
<1%
1.8%+
$969 Hac.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a modest Q1 2026 UK GDP expansion in the 0.3-0.6% range at 37.6% implied probability, closely trailed by 0.6-0.9% (28.6%) and 0.0-0.3% (22.5%), reflecting competitive sentiment amid January's flat monthly GDP print (0.0% month-on-month, released March 13) and softening March flash composite PMI at 51.0—signaling stagnation after 53.7 in February. Rising unemployment to 5.2% (November-January data, March 19) and OBR's downgraded 1.1% full-year growth forecast (March 3) temper optimism, contrasting Bank of England projections implying ~0.2% quarterly. Key differentiator: tomorrow's (April 16) February monthly GDP release, pivotal for Q1 trajectory before ONS quarterly estimate late April.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Hacim
$22,686Bitiş Tarihi
14 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a modest Q1 2026 UK GDP expansion in the 0.3-0.6% range at 37.6% implied probability, closely trailed by 0.6-0.9% (28.6%) and 0.0-0.3% (22.5%), reflecting competitive sentiment amid January's flat monthly GDP print (0.0% month-on-month, released March 13) and softening March flash composite PMI at 51.0—signaling stagnation after 53.7 in February. Rising unemployment to 5.2% (November-January data, March 19) and OBR's downgraded 1.1% full-year growth forecast (March 3) temper optimism, contrasting Bank of England projections implying ~0.2% quarterly. Key differentiator: tomorrow's (April 16) February monthly GDP release, pivotal for Q1 trajectory before ONS quarterly estimate late April.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$22,686Bitiş Tarihi
14 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a modest Q1 2026 UK GDP expansion in the 0.3-0.6% range at 37.6% implied probability, closely trailed by 0.6-0.9% (28.6%) and 0.0-0.3% (22.5%), reflecting competitive sentiment amid January's flat monthly GDP print (0.0% month-on-month, released March 13) and softening March flash composite PMI at 51.0—signaling stagnation after 53.7 in February. Rising unemployment to 5.2% (November-January data, March 19) and OBR's downgraded 1.1% full-year growth forecast (March 3) temper optimism, contrasting Bank of England projections implying ~0.2% quarterly. Key differentiator: tomorrow's (April 16) February monthly GDP release, pivotal for Q1 trajectory before ONS quarterly estimate late April.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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