Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.3% as of April 9, reflecting softer recent data on consumer spending and investment amid lingering effects from Q4 2025's government shutdown, which saw GDP revised down to 0.5%. This has concentrated Polymarket trader consensus around 1.5–2.5% ranges, with implied probabilities tightly clustered (23.6% for 1.5–2.0%, 20.6% for 2.0–2.5%), underscoring uncertainty between nowcast models and higher economist surveys like Philadelphia Fed's 2.6% median. Resilient personal consumption offsets drags from net exports and inventories, but final March trade and income data could swing outcomes ahead of the advance estimate due late April.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'nın ilk çeyreğinde ABD GSYİH büyümesi?
2026 'nın ilk çeyreğinde ABD GSYİH büyümesi?
%1,5–%2,0 23.8%
%2,0–%2,5 20.7%
%1,0–%1,5 19.7%
%1,0'in altında 12.6%
$309,505 Hac.
$309,505 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
%1,0'in altında
13%
%1,0–%1,5
20%
%1,5–%2,0
24%
%2,0–%2,5
21%
%2,5–%3,0
10%
%3,0–%3,5
6%
%3,5 ve üzeri
6%
%1,5–%2,0 23.8%
%2,0–%2,5 20.7%
%1,0–%1,5 19.7%
%1,0'in altında 12.6%
$309,505 Hac.
$309,505 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
%1,0'in altında
$30,326 Hac.
13%
%1,0–%1,5
$7,821 Hac.
20%
%1,5–%2,0
$30,729 Hac.
24%
%2,0–%2,5
$44,815 Hac.
21%
%2,5–%3,0
$25,880 Hac.
10%
%3,0–%3,5
$93,363 Hac.
6%
%3,5 ve üzeri
$76,577 Hac.
6%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.3% as of April 9, reflecting softer recent data on consumer spending and investment amid lingering effects from Q4 2025's government shutdown, which saw GDP revised down to 0.5%. This has concentrated Polymarket trader consensus around 1.5–2.5% ranges, with implied probabilities tightly clustered (23.6% for 1.5–2.0%, 20.6% for 2.0–2.5%), underscoring uncertainty between nowcast models and higher economist surveys like Philadelphia Fed's 2.6% median. Resilient personal consumption offsets drags from net exports and inventories, but final March trade and income data could swing outcomes ahead of the advance estimate due late April.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Hacim
$309,505Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.3% as of April 9, reflecting softer recent data on consumer spending and investment amid lingering effects from Q4 2025's government shutdown, which saw GDP revised down to 0.5%. This has concentrated Polymarket trader consensus around 1.5–2.5% ranges, with implied probabilities tightly clustered (23.6% for 1.5–2.0%, 20.6% for 2.0–2.5%), underscoring uncertainty between nowcast models and higher economist surveys like Philadelphia Fed's 2.6% median. Resilient personal consumption offsets drags from net exports and inventories, but final March trade and income data could swing outcomes ahead of the advance estimate due late April.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Hacim
$309,505Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.3% as of April 9, reflecting softer recent data on consumer spending and investment amid lingering effects from Q4 2025's government shutdown, which saw GDP revised down to 0.5%. This has concentrated Polymarket trader consensus around 1.5–2.5% ranges, with implied probabilities tightly clustered (23.6% for 1.5–2.0%, 20.6% for 2.0–2.5%), underscoring uncertainty between nowcast models and higher economist surveys like Philadelphia Fed's 2.6% median. Resilient personal consumption offsets drags from net exports and inventories, but final March trade and income data could swing outcomes ahead of the advance estimate due late April.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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