Polymarket traders price a narrow contest for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5-1.0% holding a 41.5% implied probability ahead of 1.0-1.5% at 37.0%, reflecting January's sharp IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month amid industrial weakness and falling fixed investment. Resilient services sector growth and a February flash estimate of 1.2% year-over-year provide counterbalance, aligning with full-year consensus forecasts around 1.4-1.6% from Citi and IMF surveys. Key differentiators include remittances bolstering consumption versus persistent manufacturing slowdowns tied to U.S. demand softening. Odds hinge on late-April February IGAE confirmation and the April 30 INEGI release, with fiscal tightening risks capping upside.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi0.5-1.0% 58%
1.0-1.5% 37%
0.0-0.5% 8.1%
<0.0% 6.8%
YENİ
YENİ
30 Nis 2026
<0.0%
7%
0.0-0.5%
22%
0.5-1.0%
43%
1.0-1.5%
37%
1.5-2.0%
1%
2.0-2.5%
9%
>2.5%
4%
0.5-1.0% 58%
1.0-1.5% 37%
0.0-0.5% 8.1%
<0.0% 6.8%
YENİ
YENİ
30 Nis 2026
<0.0%
$431 Hac.
7%
0.0-0.5%
$348 Hac.
22%
0.5-1.0%
$567 Hac.
43%
1.0-1.5%
$706 Hac.
37%
1.5-2.0%
$408 Hac.
1%
2.0-2.5%
$139 Hac.
9%
>2.5%
$147 Hac.
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a narrow contest for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5-1.0% holding a 41.5% implied probability ahead of 1.0-1.5% at 37.0%, reflecting January's sharp IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month amid industrial weakness and falling fixed investment. Resilient services sector growth and a February flash estimate of 1.2% year-over-year provide counterbalance, aligning with full-year consensus forecasts around 1.4-1.6% from Citi and IMF surveys. Key differentiators include remittances bolstering consumption versus persistent manufacturing slowdowns tied to U.S. demand softening. Odds hinge on late-April February IGAE confirmation and the April 30 INEGI release, with fiscal tightening risks capping upside.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Hacim
$2,745Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a narrow contest for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5-1.0% holding a 41.5% implied probability ahead of 1.0-1.5% at 37.0%, reflecting January's sharp IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month amid industrial weakness and falling fixed investment. Resilient services sector growth and a February flash estimate of 1.2% year-over-year provide counterbalance, aligning with full-year consensus forecasts around 1.4-1.6% from Citi and IMF surveys. Key differentiators include remittances bolstering consumption versus persistent manufacturing slowdowns tied to U.S. demand softening. Odds hinge on late-April February IGAE confirmation and the April 30 INEGI release, with fiscal tightening risks capping upside.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$2,745Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a narrow contest for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5-1.0% holding a 41.5% implied probability ahead of 1.0-1.5% at 37.0%, reflecting January's sharp IGAE contraction of 0.9% month-over-month amid industrial weakness and falling fixed investment. Resilient services sector growth and a February flash estimate of 1.2% year-over-year provide counterbalance, aligning with full-year consensus forecasts around 1.4-1.6% from Citi and IMF surveys. Key differentiators include remittances bolstering consumption versus persistent manufacturing slowdowns tied to U.S. demand softening. Odds hinge on late-April February IGAE confirmation and the April 30 INEGI release, with fiscal tightening risks capping upside.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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