Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 91% implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid resilient economic indicators. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding subdued 60,000 forecasts—with unemployment easing to 4.3%, bolstering consumer spending and business confidence following Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 GDPNow nowcast holds at 1.3%, aligning with economist medians near 2% full-year expansion per Fed, IMF, and S&P projections. While hotter March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year signals inflation risks that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions or tariff escalations pose realistic upset scenarios to this soft-landing narrative ahead of Q1 GDP advance estimates later this month.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da negatif GSYİH büyümesi?
2026 'da negatif GSYİH büyümesi?
Evet
$19,510 Hac.
$19,510 Hac.
29 Oca 2027
Evet
$19,510 Hac.
$19,510 Hac.
29 Oca 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 91% implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid resilient economic indicators. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding subdued 60,000 forecasts—with unemployment easing to 4.3%, bolstering consumer spending and business confidence following Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 GDPNow nowcast holds at 1.3%, aligning with economist medians near 2% full-year expansion per Fed, IMF, and S&P projections. While hotter March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year signals inflation risks that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions or tariff escalations pose realistic upset scenarios to this soft-landing narrative ahead of Q1 GDP advance estimates later this month.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Hacim
$19,510Bitiş Tarihi
29 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 91% implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid resilient economic indicators. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding subdued 60,000 forecasts—with unemployment easing to 4.3%, bolstering consumer spending and business confidence following Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 GDPNow nowcast holds at 1.3%, aligning with economist medians near 2% full-year expansion per Fed, IMF, and S&P projections. While hotter March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year signals inflation risks that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions or tariff escalations pose realistic upset scenarios to this soft-landing narrative ahead of Q1 GDP advance estimates later this month.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Hacim
$19,510Bitiş Tarihi
29 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 91% implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid resilient economic indicators. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding subdued 60,000 forecasts—with unemployment easing to 4.3%, bolstering consumer spending and business confidence following Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 GDPNow nowcast holds at 1.3%, aligning with economist medians near 2% full-year expansion per Fed, IMF, and S&P projections. While hotter March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year signals inflation risks that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions or tariff escalations pose realistic upset scenarios to this soft-landing narrative ahead of Q1 GDP advance estimates later this month.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular