Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a slim 35% implied probability for negative UK annual GDP growth in 2026, edging out 4-5% growth at 32%, amid stalled economic momentum and geopolitical headwinds. January 2026 GDP registered zero growth per Office for National Statistics monthly estimates—extending Q4 2025's meager 0.1% expansion—while February CPI inflation held steady at 3.0%, tempering Bank of England rate-cut expectations despite the March 19 hold at 3.75%. Downgraded forecasts (OBR March: 1.1%; OECD: 0.8%; KPMG: 0.7%) reflect Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks, yet upside bets hinge on conflict de-escalation and MPC easing at the April 30 meeting or Q1 GDP release, creating a tight contest between recession risks and rebound potential.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi4-5% 32%
<0 29%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
YENİ
YENİ
12 Şub 2027
<0
35%
0-1%
25%
1-2%
20%
2-3%
7%
3-4%
9%
4-5%
32%
5%+
6%
4-5% 32%
<0 29%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
YENİ
YENİ
12 Şub 2027
<0
$334 Hac.
35%
0-1%
$309 Hac.
25%
1-2%
$210 Hac.
20%
2-3%
$247 Hac.
7%
3-4%
$201 Hac.
9%
4-5%
$411 Hac.
32%
5%+
$252 Hac.
6%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a slim 35% implied probability for negative UK annual GDP growth in 2026, edging out 4-5% growth at 32%, amid stalled economic momentum and geopolitical headwinds. January 2026 GDP registered zero growth per Office for National Statistics monthly estimates—extending Q4 2025's meager 0.1% expansion—while February CPI inflation held steady at 3.0%, tempering Bank of England rate-cut expectations despite the March 19 hold at 3.75%. Downgraded forecasts (OBR March: 1.1%; OECD: 0.8%; KPMG: 0.7%) reflect Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks, yet upside bets hinge on conflict de-escalation and MPC easing at the April 30 meeting or Q1 GDP release, creating a tight contest between recession risks and rebound potential.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Hacim
$1,964Bitiş Tarihi
12 Şub 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a slim 35% implied probability for negative UK annual GDP growth in 2026, edging out 4-5% growth at 32%, amid stalled economic momentum and geopolitical headwinds. January 2026 GDP registered zero growth per Office for National Statistics monthly estimates—extending Q4 2025's meager 0.1% expansion—while February CPI inflation held steady at 3.0%, tempering Bank of England rate-cut expectations despite the March 19 hold at 3.75%. Downgraded forecasts (OBR March: 1.1%; OECD: 0.8%; KPMG: 0.7%) reflect Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks, yet upside bets hinge on conflict de-escalation and MPC easing at the April 30 meeting or Q1 GDP release, creating a tight contest between recession risks and rebound potential.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$1,964Bitiş Tarihi
12 Şub 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a slim 35% implied probability for negative UK annual GDP growth in 2026, edging out 4-5% growth at 32%, amid stalled economic momentum and geopolitical headwinds. January 2026 GDP registered zero growth per Office for National Statistics monthly estimates—extending Q4 2025's meager 0.1% expansion—while February CPI inflation held steady at 3.0%, tempering Bank of England rate-cut expectations despite the March 19 hold at 3.75%. Downgraded forecasts (OBR March: 1.1%; OECD: 0.8%; KPMG: 0.7%) reflect Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks, yet upside bets hinge on conflict de-escalation and MPC easing at the April 30 meeting or Q1 GDP release, creating a tight contest between recession risks and rebound potential.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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