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Ekonomi·İktisat Politikası

GDP growth in 2026

Market icon
Ekonomi·İktisat Politikası

GDP growth in 2026

Nis 30

Oca 29, 2027

Nis 30

Oca 29, 2027

>2.5% 56%

1.5–2.0% 11.8%

2.0–2.5% 11%

<0.5% 9.4%

Polymarket

$26,701 Hac.

>2.5% 56%

1.5–2.0% 11.8%

2.0–2.5% 11%

<0.5% 9.4%

Polymarket

$26,701 Hac.

<0.5%

$3,752 Hac.

9%

0.5–1.0%

$15,052 Hac.

5%

1.0–1.5%

$1,460 Hac.

8%

1.5–2.0%

$1,277 Hac.

12%

2.0–2.5%

$1,338 Hac.

11%

>2.5%

$3,820 Hac.

56%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% (central tendency 2.2–2.5%), driven by resilient Q1 momentum offsetting Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% annualized from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q1 at 1.3%, while IMF and Wall Street consensus hover at 2.2–2.3%, pressured by Middle East conflicts elevating oil prices and curbing spending. Lower buckets like <0.5% at 9.4% price in tail risks from fiscal policy shifts; watch April 30 Q1 advance estimate for catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$26,701
Bitiş Tarihi
29 Oca 2027
Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% (central tendency 2.2–2.5%), driven by resilient Q1 momentum offsetting Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% annualized from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q1 at 1.3%, while IMF and Wall Street consensus hover at 2.2–2.3%, pressured by Middle East conflicts elevating oil prices and curbing spending. Lower buckets like <0.5% at 9.4% price in tail risks from fiscal policy shifts; watch April 30 Q1 advance estimate for catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$26,701
Bitiş Tarihi
29 Oca 2027
Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"GDP growth in 2026", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 6 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 56% ile ">2.5%", ardından 12% ile "1.5–2.0%" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 56¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 56% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "GDP growth in 2026" toplam $26.7K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Nov 12, 2025 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"GDP growth in 2026" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 6 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"GDP growth in 2026" için mevcut favori 56% ile ">2.5%"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 56% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 12% ile "1.5–2.0%"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"GDP growth in 2026" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.