Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, reflecting persistent but contained tensions in the East China Sea, particularly around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, where Chinese coast guard patrols—357 days in 2025 alone—prompt routine Japanese scrambles without kinetic escalation. Recent developments, including Japan's fighter intercepts of Chinese aircraft over the East China Sea on March 28 and early April 2026, alongside diplomatic frictions like China's February export restrictions on Japanese entities, have heightened rhetoric but underscored mutual restraint amid U.S.-Japan alliance deterrence, economic interdependence, and no verified armed incidents. Absent major catalysts like Taiwan contingencies, traders anticipate de-escalation signals or status quo continuation through 2026.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$594,907 Hac.
$594,907 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$594,907 Hac.
$594,907 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, reflecting persistent but contained tensions in the East China Sea, particularly around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, where Chinese coast guard patrols—357 days in 2025 alone—prompt routine Japanese scrambles without kinetic escalation. Recent developments, including Japan's fighter intercepts of Chinese aircraft over the East China Sea on March 28 and early April 2026, alongside diplomatic frictions like China's February export restrictions on Japanese entities, have heightened rhetoric but underscored mutual restraint amid U.S.-Japan alliance deterrence, economic interdependence, and no verified armed incidents. Absent major catalysts like Taiwan contingencies, traders anticipate de-escalation signals or status quo continuation through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
Hacim
$594,907Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, reflecting persistent but contained tensions in the East China Sea, particularly around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, where Chinese coast guard patrols—357 days in 2025 alone—prompt routine Japanese scrambles without kinetic escalation. Recent developments, including Japan's fighter intercepts of Chinese aircraft over the East China Sea on March 28 and early April 2026, alongside diplomatic frictions like China's February export restrictions on Japanese entities, have heightened rhetoric but underscored mutual restraint amid U.S.-Japan alliance deterrence, economic interdependence, and no verified armed incidents. Absent major catalysts like Taiwan contingencies, traders anticipate de-escalation signals or status quo continuation through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$594,907Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for a China-Japan military clash before 2027, reflecting persistent but contained tensions in the East China Sea, particularly around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, where Chinese coast guard patrols—357 days in 2025 alone—prompt routine Japanese scrambles without kinetic escalation. Recent developments, including Japan's fighter intercepts of Chinese aircraft over the East China Sea on March 28 and early April 2026, alongside diplomatic frictions like China's February export restrictions on Japanese entities, have heightened rhetoric but underscored mutual restraint amid U.S.-Japan alliance deterrence, economic interdependence, and no verified armed incidents. Absent major catalysts like Taiwan contingencies, traders anticipate de-escalation signals or status quo continuation through 2026.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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