Recent Chinese deployment of ships and barriers to restrict access at Scarborough Shoal, reported on April 15, exemplifies ongoing gray-zone coercion in the South China Sea, yet traders assign only 16.5% odds to a full military clash before 2027, reflecting de-escalatory diplomacy. Manila and Beijing resumed high-level bilateral consultations in late March—the first in over a year—agreeing to manage disputes via the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism amid incidents like naval near-collisions on March 30, flares fired at Philippine aircraft, and harassment of fishing vessels near disputed features. No kinetic exchanges have materialized, underscoring mutual restraint driven by economic ties, ASEAN mediation efforts, and U.S. mutual defense treaty commitments to the Philippines, positioning tensions below armed conflict thresholds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$243,432 Hac.
$243,432 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$243,432 Hac.
$243,432 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Chinese deployment of ships and barriers to restrict access at Scarborough Shoal, reported on April 15, exemplifies ongoing gray-zone coercion in the South China Sea, yet traders assign only 16.5% odds to a full military clash before 2027, reflecting de-escalatory diplomacy. Manila and Beijing resumed high-level bilateral consultations in late March—the first in over a year—agreeing to manage disputes via the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism amid incidents like naval near-collisions on March 30, flares fired at Philippine aircraft, and harassment of fishing vessels near disputed features. No kinetic exchanges have materialized, underscoring mutual restraint driven by economic ties, ASEAN mediation efforts, and U.S. mutual defense treaty commitments to the Philippines, positioning tensions below armed conflict thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Hacim
$243,432Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Chinese deployment of ships and barriers to restrict access at Scarborough Shoal, reported on April 15, exemplifies ongoing gray-zone coercion in the South China Sea, yet traders assign only 16.5% odds to a full military clash before 2027, reflecting de-escalatory diplomacy. Manila and Beijing resumed high-level bilateral consultations in late March—the first in over a year—agreeing to manage disputes via the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism amid incidents like naval near-collisions on March 30, flares fired at Philippine aircraft, and harassment of fishing vessels near disputed features. No kinetic exchanges have materialized, underscoring mutual restraint driven by economic ties, ASEAN mediation efforts, and U.S. mutual defense treaty commitments to the Philippines, positioning tensions below armed conflict thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$243,432Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Chinese deployment of ships and barriers to restrict access at Scarborough Shoal, reported on April 15, exemplifies ongoing gray-zone coercion in the South China Sea, yet traders assign only 16.5% odds to a full military clash before 2027, reflecting de-escalatory diplomacy. Manila and Beijing resumed high-level bilateral consultations in late March—the first in over a year—agreeing to manage disputes via the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism amid incidents like naval near-collisions on March 30, flares fired at Philippine aircraft, and harassment of fishing vessels near disputed features. No kinetic exchanges have materialized, underscoring mutual restraint driven by economic ties, ASEAN mediation efforts, and U.S. mutual defense treaty commitments to the Philippines, positioning tensions below armed conflict thresholds.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular