Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 62.5% implied probability that a court will force the Trump administration to refund tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, driven by recent procedural advancements in the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT). On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs, opening the door to refunds for roughly $166 billion paid by 330,000 importers. CIT Judge Richard Eaton ordered nationwide refunds with interest on March 4, and as of April 14, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) confirmed the refund claims process launches April 20, boosting Yes odds amid ongoing implementation despite administration delays and parallel challenges to replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$352,771 Hac.
$352,771 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Evet
$352,771 Hac.
$352,771 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 62.5% implied probability that a court will force the Trump administration to refund tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, driven by recent procedural advancements in the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT). On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs, opening the door to refunds for roughly $166 billion paid by 330,000 importers. CIT Judge Richard Eaton ordered nationwide refunds with interest on March 4, and as of April 14, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) confirmed the refund claims process launches April 20, boosting Yes odds amid ongoing implementation despite administration delays and parallel challenges to replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act.
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ET
Hacim
$352,771Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 62.5% implied probability that a court will force the Trump administration to refund tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, driven by recent procedural advancements in the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT). On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs, opening the door to refunds for roughly $166 billion paid by 330,000 importers. CIT Judge Richard Eaton ordered nationwide refunds with interest on March 4, and as of April 14, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) confirmed the refund claims process launches April 20, boosting Yes odds amid ongoing implementation despite administration delays and parallel challenges to replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act.
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:
1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part
2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.
For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.
If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$352,775Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 11:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 62.5% implied probability that a court will force the Trump administration to refund tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court, driven by recent procedural advancements in the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT). On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs, opening the door to refunds for roughly $166 billion paid by 330,000 importers. CIT Judge Richard Eaton ordered nationwide refunds with interest on March 4, and as of April 14, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) confirmed the refund claims process launches April 20, boosting Yes odds amid ongoing implementation despite administration delays and parallel challenges to replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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