Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of Supreme Court granting certiorari by July 31 on a sports event contract case, driven by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit's April 6 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty affirming Commodity Exchange Act preemption of state gambling laws for CFTC-regulated swaps on designated contract markets like Kalshi. Former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler stated April 15 that such contracts resemble gaming outside congressional intent for federal oversight, bolstering state challenges. Oral arguments occurred today in Ninth Circuit consolidated cases against states, with rulings expected in 60-120 days potentially creating a circuit split; New Jersey's certiorari petition is due early July absent en banc review. Pending Fourth and Sixth Circuit appeals heighten review prospects, but SCOTUS typically awaits final merits decisions or splits.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiSCOTUS spor etkinliği sözleşme davasını...?
SCOTUS spor etkinliği sözleşme davasını...?
$936,129 Hac.
31 Tem 2026
31 Temmuz
14%
31 Aralık
29%
$936,129 Hac.
31 Temmuz
$929,259 Hac.
14%
31 Aralık
$6,870 Hac.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of Supreme Court granting certiorari by July 31 on a sports event contract case, driven by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit's April 6 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty affirming Commodity Exchange Act preemption of state gambling laws for CFTC-regulated swaps on designated contract markets like Kalshi. Former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler stated April 15 that such contracts resemble gaming outside congressional intent for federal oversight, bolstering state challenges. Oral arguments occurred today in Ninth Circuit consolidated cases against states, with rulings expected in 60-120 days potentially creating a circuit split; New Jersey's certiorari petition is due early July absent en banc review. Pending Fourth and Sixth Circuit appeals heighten review prospects, but SCOTUS typically awaits final merits decisions or splits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ET
Hacim
$936,129Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of Supreme Court granting certiorari by July 31 on a sports event contract case, driven by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit's April 6 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty affirming Commodity Exchange Act preemption of state gambling laws for CFTC-regulated swaps on designated contract markets like Kalshi. Former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler stated April 15 that such contracts resemble gaming outside congressional intent for federal oversight, bolstering state challenges. Oral arguments occurred today in Ninth Circuit consolidated cases against states, with rulings expected in 60-120 days potentially creating a circuit split; New Jersey's certiorari petition is due early July absent en banc review. Pending Fourth and Sixth Circuit appeals heighten review prospects, but SCOTUS typically awaits final merits decisions or splits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Hacim
$936,129Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jul 16, 2025, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of Supreme Court granting certiorari by July 31 on a sports event contract case, driven by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit's April 6 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty affirming Commodity Exchange Act preemption of state gambling laws for CFTC-regulated swaps on designated contract markets like Kalshi. Former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler stated April 15 that such contracts resemble gaming outside congressional intent for federal oversight, bolstering state challenges. Oral arguments occurred today in Ninth Circuit consolidated cases against states, with rulings expected in 60-120 days potentially creating a circuit split; New Jersey's certiorari petition is due early July absent en banc review. Pending Fourth and Sixth Circuit appeals heighten review prospects, but SCOTUS typically awaits final merits decisions or splits.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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