Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" at 97% implied probability for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers unification without force, alongside recent PLA leadership purges disrupting military readiness amid routine gray-zone tactics like warplane incursions. Ongoing hybrid pressures persist—China dismissed U.S. claims of escalation as distortions on April 15—but no verifiable amphibious buildup, logistics mobilization, or troop concentrations signal an attack in the remaining 75 days, reinforced by Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, U.S. deterrence commitments, and high economic costs. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden crises like territorial disputes or leadership upheavals, though barriers remain formidable.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$5,706,552 Hac.
$5,706,552 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Evet
$5,706,552 Hac.
$5,706,552 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" at 97% implied probability for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers unification without force, alongside recent PLA leadership purges disrupting military readiness amid routine gray-zone tactics like warplane incursions. Ongoing hybrid pressures persist—China dismissed U.S. claims of escalation as distortions on April 15—but no verifiable amphibious buildup, logistics mobilization, or troop concentrations signal an attack in the remaining 75 days, reinforced by Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, U.S. deterrence commitments, and high economic costs. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden crises like territorial disputes or leadership upheavals, though barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Hacim
$5,706,552Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" at 97% implied probability for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers unification without force, alongside recent PLA leadership purges disrupting military readiness amid routine gray-zone tactics like warplane incursions. Ongoing hybrid pressures persist—China dismissed U.S. claims of escalation as distortions on April 15—but no verifiable amphibious buildup, logistics mobilization, or troop concentrations signal an attack in the remaining 75 days, reinforced by Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, U.S. deterrence commitments, and high economic costs. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden crises like territorial disputes or leadership upheavals, though barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Hacim
$5,706,552Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" at 97% implied probability for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers unification without force, alongside recent PLA leadership purges disrupting military readiness amid routine gray-zone tactics like warplane incursions. Ongoing hybrid pressures persist—China dismissed U.S. claims of escalation as distortions on April 15—but no verifiable amphibious buildup, logistics mobilization, or troop concentrations signal an attack in the remaining 75 days, reinforced by Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, U.S. deterrence commitments, and high economic costs. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden crises like territorial disputes or leadership upheavals, though barriers remain formidable.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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