Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision reflects a razor-thin divide, with no change at 52.5% implied probability edging out a 25 basis point increase at 45.5%, driven by March 2026 Eurozone CPI surging to 2.5%—above the ECB's 2% target—due to soaring energy costs, reversing prior disinflation trends from January's 1.7%. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19 amid this uptick, but major banks like Goldman Sachs now forecast hikes starting April 30 and June, citing persistent wage pressures and services inflation. Key swing factors include the April meeting's forward guidance and forthcoming April CPI data, with traders pricing in balanced risks of policy reversal versus extended pause.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
No change 52%
25 bps Increase 44%
50+ bps increase 2.8%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
$13,577 Hac.
$13,577 Hac.
11 Haz 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
52%
25 bps Increase
44%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 52%
25 bps Increase 44%
50+ bps increase 2.8%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
$13,577 Hac.
$13,577 Hac.
11 Haz 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,380 Hac.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,122 Hac.
2%
No change
$2,928 Hac.
52%
25 bps Increase
$3,022 Hac.
44%
50+ bps increase
$3,125 Hac.
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision reflects a razor-thin divide, with no change at 52.5% implied probability edging out a 25 basis point increase at 45.5%, driven by March 2026 Eurozone CPI surging to 2.5%—above the ECB's 2% target—due to soaring energy costs, reversing prior disinflation trends from January's 1.7%. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19 amid this uptick, but major banks like Goldman Sachs now forecast hikes starting April 30 and June, citing persistent wage pressures and services inflation. Key swing factors include the April meeting's forward guidance and forthcoming April CPI data, with traders pricing in balanced risks of policy reversal versus extended pause.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Hacim
$13,577Bitiş Tarihi
11 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision reflects a razor-thin divide, with no change at 52.5% implied probability edging out a 25 basis point increase at 45.5%, driven by March 2026 Eurozone CPI surging to 2.5%—above the ECB's 2% target—due to soaring energy costs, reversing prior disinflation trends from January's 1.7%. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19 amid this uptick, but major banks like Goldman Sachs now forecast hikes starting April 30 and June, citing persistent wage pressures and services inflation. Key swing factors include the April meeting's forward guidance and forthcoming April CPI data, with traders pricing in balanced risks of policy reversal versus extended pause.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Hacim
$13,577Bitiş Tarihi
11 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision reflects a razor-thin divide, with no change at 52.5% implied probability edging out a 25 basis point increase at 45.5%, driven by March 2026 Eurozone CPI surging to 2.5%—above the ECB's 2% target—due to soaring energy costs, reversing prior disinflation trends from January's 1.7%. The Governing Council held the deposit facility rate steady at 2% on March 19 amid this uptick, but major banks like Goldman Sachs now forecast hikes starting April 30 and June, citing persistent wage pressures and services inflation. Key swing factors include the April meeting's forward guidance and forthcoming April CPI data, with traders pricing in balanced risks of policy reversal versus extended pause.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular