Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision reflects a razor-thin split, with no change at the current 2.00% deposit facility rate priced at 50% implied probability and a 25 basis points increase at 44.5%, underscoring uncertainty over the Governing Council's response to persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 Eurozone headline CPI surged to 2.5% from 1.9% in February, driven by an oil shock and geopolitical tensions, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6% while holding rates steady on March 19. Core CPI at 2.3% slightly missed expectations, tempering hawkish bets, but banks like Morgan Stanley now eye June hikes amid sticky wage growth and subdued 0.9% GDP outlook. Key swing factors include the April 30 policy meeting, upcoming April CPI data, and energy price trajectories, with traders wagering on whether data will solidify a pause or force tightening.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
No change 50%
25 bps Increase 45%
50+ bps increase 4.4%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
$13,577 Hac.
$13,577 Hac.
11 Haz 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
50%
25 bps Increase
45%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 50%
25 bps Increase 45%
50+ bps increase 4.4%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
$13,577 Hac.
$13,577 Hac.
11 Haz 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,380 Hac.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,122 Hac.
2%
No change
$2,928 Hac.
50%
25 bps Increase
$3,022 Hac.
45%
50+ bps increase
$3,125 Hac.
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision reflects a razor-thin split, with no change at the current 2.00% deposit facility rate priced at 50% implied probability and a 25 basis points increase at 44.5%, underscoring uncertainty over the Governing Council's response to persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 Eurozone headline CPI surged to 2.5% from 1.9% in February, driven by an oil shock and geopolitical tensions, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6% while holding rates steady on March 19. Core CPI at 2.3% slightly missed expectations, tempering hawkish bets, but banks like Morgan Stanley now eye June hikes amid sticky wage growth and subdued 0.9% GDP outlook. Key swing factors include the April 30 policy meeting, upcoming April CPI data, and energy price trajectories, with traders wagering on whether data will solidify a pause or force tightening.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Hacim
$13,577Bitiş Tarihi
11 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision reflects a razor-thin split, with no change at the current 2.00% deposit facility rate priced at 50% implied probability and a 25 basis points increase at 44.5%, underscoring uncertainty over the Governing Council's response to persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 Eurozone headline CPI surged to 2.5% from 1.9% in February, driven by an oil shock and geopolitical tensions, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6% while holding rates steady on March 19. Core CPI at 2.3% slightly missed expectations, tempering hawkish bets, but banks like Morgan Stanley now eye June hikes amid sticky wage growth and subdued 0.9% GDP outlook. Key swing factors include the April 30 policy meeting, upcoming April CPI data, and energy price trajectories, with traders wagering on whether data will solidify a pause or force tightening.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Hacim
$13,577Bitiş Tarihi
11 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision reflects a razor-thin split, with no change at the current 2.00% deposit facility rate priced at 50% implied probability and a 25 basis points increase at 44.5%, underscoring uncertainty over the Governing Council's response to persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 Eurozone headline CPI surged to 2.5% from 1.9% in February, driven by an oil shock and geopolitical tensions, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.6% while holding rates steady on March 19. Core CPI at 2.3% slightly missed expectations, tempering hawkish bets, but banks like Morgan Stanley now eye June hikes amid sticky wage growth and subdued 0.9% GDP outlook. Key swing factors include the April 30 policy meeting, upcoming April CPI data, and energy price trajectories, with traders wagering on whether data will solidify a pause or force tightening.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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