SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing earlier this month, targeting a blockbuster $75 billion IPO raise at a $1.75-2 trillion valuation, has anchored trader consensus around the 70-80B outcome at 33.5% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting secondary market enthusiasm post its $800 billion December 2025 tender offer. Starlink's subscriber surge and $22 billion in active contracts underpin revenue projections, yet the 75x estimated 2026 sales multiple fuels skepticism, dispersing odds across buckets amid macro volatility and execution risks like Starship milestones. Key differentiators include roadshow reception in June, regulatory hurdles for satellite expansion, and comparable mega-IPOs; public prospectus expected late May could sharpen pricing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$134,522 Hac.
$134,522 Hac.
<40B
6%
40-50B
8%
50-60B
14%
60-70B
10%
70-80B
34%
80-90B
16%
90-100B
2%
100-110B
17%
110-120B
1%
120 milyar dolar+
4%
$134,522 Hac.
$134,522 Hac.
<40B
$9,566 Hac.
6%
40-50B
$5,305 Hac.
8%
50-60B
$33,028 Hac.
14%
60-70B
$14,044 Hac.
10%
70-80B
$23,928 Hac.
34%
80-90B
$15,462 Hac.
16%
90-100B
$10,080 Hac.
2%
100-110B
$7,478 Hac.
17%
110-120B
$8,136 Hac.
1%
120 milyar dolar+
$7,496 Hac.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing earlier this month, targeting a blockbuster $75 billion IPO raise at a $1.75-2 trillion valuation, has anchored trader consensus around the 70-80B outcome at 33.5% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting secondary market enthusiasm post its $800 billion December 2025 tender offer. Starlink's subscriber surge and $22 billion in active contracts underpin revenue projections, yet the 75x estimated 2026 sales multiple fuels skepticism, dispersing odds across buckets amid macro volatility and execution risks like Starship milestones. Key differentiators include roadshow reception in June, regulatory hurdles for satellite expansion, and comparable mega-IPOs; public prospectus expected late May could sharpen pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Hacim
$134,522Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing earlier this month, targeting a blockbuster $75 billion IPO raise at a $1.75-2 trillion valuation, has anchored trader consensus around the 70-80B outcome at 33.5% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting secondary market enthusiasm post its $800 billion December 2025 tender offer. Starlink's subscriber surge and $22 billion in active contracts underpin revenue projections, yet the 75x estimated 2026 sales multiple fuels skepticism, dispersing odds across buckets amid macro volatility and execution risks like Starship milestones. Key differentiators include roadshow reception in June, regulatory hurdles for satellite expansion, and comparable mega-IPOs; public prospectus expected late May could sharpen pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$134,522Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing earlier this month, targeting a blockbuster $75 billion IPO raise at a $1.75-2 trillion valuation, has anchored trader consensus around the 70-80B outcome at 33.5% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting secondary market enthusiasm post its $800 billion December 2025 tender offer. Starlink's subscriber surge and $22 billion in active contracts underpin revenue projections, yet the 75x estimated 2026 sales multiple fuels skepticism, dispersing odds across buckets amid macro volatility and execution risks like Starship milestones. Key differentiators include roadshow reception in June, regulatory hurdles for satellite expansion, and comparable mega-IPOs; public prospectus expected late May could sharpen pricing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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