Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, leading amid closely contested odds with $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting heightened caution from sticky inflation and geopolitical risks despite the index's recent record close near 7,023. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—prompting the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% while projecting just one cut this year, curbing rate-cut hopes and multiple expansion. Q1 earnings growth is forecasted at 11.4% year-over-year, buoyed by financials (+15%), but JPMorgan trimmed its year-end target to 7,200 citing macro headwinds. US-Iran ceasefire fragility adds volatility, with upcoming April CPI, FOMC minutes, and earnings reports as key swing factors that could differentiate flat versus downside scenarios.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiS&P 500 (SPX) 2026 'nın sonunda ne kapanacak?
S&P 500 (SPX) 2026 'nın sonunda ne kapanacak?
$6.000'in altında 33%
$7.000-$7.500 23%
$6.500-$7.000 18%
$6.000-$6.500 16%
$18,724 Hac.
$18,724 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
$6.000'in altında
33%
$6.000-$6.500
16%
$6.500-$7.000
18%
$7.000-$7.500
23%
$7.500-$8.000
10%
>$8.000
7%
$6.000'in altında 33%
$7.000-$7.500 23%
$6.500-$7.000 18%
$6.000-$6.500 16%
$18,724 Hac.
$18,724 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
$6.000'in altında
$11,566 Hac.
33%
$6.000-$6.500
$1,333 Hac.
16%
$6.500-$7.000
$1,597 Hac.
18%
$7.000-$7.500
$892 Hac.
23%
$7.500-$8.000
$1,570 Hac.
10%
>$8.000
$1,767 Hac.
7%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, leading amid closely contested odds with $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting heightened caution from sticky inflation and geopolitical risks despite the index's recent record close near 7,023. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—prompting the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% while projecting just one cut this year, curbing rate-cut hopes and multiple expansion. Q1 earnings growth is forecasted at 11.4% year-over-year, buoyed by financials (+15%), but JPMorgan trimmed its year-end target to 7,200 citing macro headwinds. US-Iran ceasefire fragility adds volatility, with upcoming April CPI, FOMC minutes, and earnings reports as key swing factors that could differentiate flat versus downside scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Hacim
$18,724Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, leading amid closely contested odds with $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting heightened caution from sticky inflation and geopolitical risks despite the index's recent record close near 7,023. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—prompting the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% while projecting just one cut this year, curbing rate-cut hopes and multiple expansion. Q1 earnings growth is forecasted at 11.4% year-over-year, buoyed by financials (+15%), but JPMorgan trimmed its year-end target to 7,200 citing macro headwinds. US-Iran ceasefire fragility adds volatility, with upcoming April CPI, FOMC minutes, and earnings reports as key swing factors that could differentiate flat versus downside scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Hacim
$18,724Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, leading amid closely contested odds with $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting heightened caution from sticky inflation and geopolitical risks despite the index's recent record close near 7,023. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—prompting the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% while projecting just one cut this year, curbing rate-cut hopes and multiple expansion. Q1 earnings growth is forecasted at 11.4% year-over-year, buoyed by financials (+15%), but JPMorgan trimmed its year-end target to 7,200 citing macro headwinds. US-Iran ceasefire fragility adds volatility, with upcoming April CPI, FOMC minutes, and earnings reports as key swing factors that could differentiate flat versus downside scenarios.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
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