Recent polls, including a State Navigate survey showing Yes at 51% to No 45%, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus favoring a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, with implied probabilities highest for 3-6% (34.5%) and 6-9% (25%) margins ahead of the April 21 special election. This reflects partisan divides, as Democrats push the constitutional amendment to empower the General Assembly for temporary congressional map redraws amid other states' mid-decade changes, while Republicans decry it as gerrymandering and intensify rural voter mobilization through rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and heavy PAC ad spending. High early voting turnout, especially on Super Saturday, heightens uncertainty, with GOP enthusiasm potentially tipping the balance; final persuasion efforts or turnout disparities in battleground areas could widen margins or flip the outcome.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 3-6% 35%
Pass 6-9% 22%
No Pass 17.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,652 Hac.
$10,652 Hac.
21 Nis 2026
Pass 15%+
7%
Pass 12-15%
3%
Pass 9-12%
8%
Pass 6-9%
27%
Pass 3-6%
35%
Pass <3%
17%
No Pass
18%
Pass 3-6% 35%
Pass 6-9% 22%
No Pass 17.8%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,652 Hac.
$10,652 Hac.
21 Nis 2026
Pass 15%+
$1,225 Hac.
7%
Pass 12-15%
$471 Hac.
3%
Pass 9-12%
$1,249 Hac.
8%
Pass 6-9%
$412 Hac.
27%
Pass 3-6%
$1,221 Hac.
35%
Pass <3%
$457 Hac.
17%
No Pass
$5,616 Hac.
18%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a State Navigate survey showing Yes at 51% to No 45%, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus favoring a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, with implied probabilities highest for 3-6% (34.5%) and 6-9% (25%) margins ahead of the April 21 special election. This reflects partisan divides, as Democrats push the constitutional amendment to empower the General Assembly for temporary congressional map redraws amid other states' mid-decade changes, while Republicans decry it as gerrymandering and intensify rural voter mobilization through rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and heavy PAC ad spending. High early voting turnout, especially on Super Saturday, heightens uncertainty, with GOP enthusiasm potentially tipping the balance; final persuasion efforts or turnout disparities in battleground areas could widen margins or flip the outcome.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Hacim
$10,652Bitiş Tarihi
21 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a State Navigate survey showing Yes at 51% to No 45%, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus favoring a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, with implied probabilities highest for 3-6% (34.5%) and 6-9% (25%) margins ahead of the April 21 special election. This reflects partisan divides, as Democrats push the constitutional amendment to empower the General Assembly for temporary congressional map redraws amid other states' mid-decade changes, while Republicans decry it as gerrymandering and intensify rural voter mobilization through rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and heavy PAC ad spending. High early voting turnout, especially on Super Saturday, heightens uncertainty, with GOP enthusiasm potentially tipping the balance; final persuasion efforts or turnout disparities in battleground areas could widen margins or flip the outcome.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Hacim
$10,652Bitiş Tarihi
21 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a State Navigate survey showing Yes at 51% to No 45%, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus favoring a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, with implied probabilities highest for 3-6% (34.5%) and 6-9% (25%) margins ahead of the April 21 special election. This reflects partisan divides, as Democrats push the constitutional amendment to empower the General Assembly for temporary congressional map redraws amid other states' mid-decade changes, while Republicans decry it as gerrymandering and intensify rural voter mobilization through rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and heavy PAC ad spending. High early voting turnout, especially on Super Saturday, heightens uncertainty, with GOP enthusiasm potentially tipping the balance; final persuasion efforts or turnout disparities in battleground areas could widen margins or flip the outcome.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular