Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for the California one-time wealth tax on billionaires passing in the November 2026 election, driven by Governor Gavin Newsom's public opposition in his final year, which could sway voters amid state budget pressures. Recent CalMatters reporting highlights divisions among liberal Democrats and labor unions, eroding potential support despite March polls from POLITICO and UC Berkeley showing slim majority backing. Billionaires have pledged $35 million to fund counter-initiatives and opposition campaigns, while studies like Hoover Institution's estimate net state revenue losses from wealthy exodus—evidenced by relocations to Florida. Signature gathering for ballot qualification remains incomplete, with only 25% reported in early March and a July deadline looming, underscoring certification risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$2,932,562 Hac.
$2,932,562 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Evet
$2,932,562 Hac.
$2,932,562 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for the California one-time wealth tax on billionaires passing in the November 2026 election, driven by Governor Gavin Newsom's public opposition in his final year, which could sway voters amid state budget pressures. Recent CalMatters reporting highlights divisions among liberal Democrats and labor unions, eroding potential support despite March polls from POLITICO and UC Berkeley showing slim majority backing. Billionaires have pledged $35 million to fund counter-initiatives and opposition campaigns, while studies like Hoover Institution's estimate net state revenue losses from wealthy exodus—evidenced by relocations to Florida. Signature gathering for ballot qualification remains incomplete, with only 25% reported in early March and a July deadline looming, underscoring certification risks.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Hacim
$2,932,562Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for the California one-time wealth tax on billionaires passing in the November 2026 election, driven by Governor Gavin Newsom's public opposition in his final year, which could sway voters amid state budget pressures. Recent CalMatters reporting highlights divisions among liberal Democrats and labor unions, eroding potential support despite March polls from POLITICO and UC Berkeley showing slim majority backing. Billionaires have pledged $35 million to fund counter-initiatives and opposition campaigns, while studies like Hoover Institution's estimate net state revenue losses from wealthy exodus—evidenced by relocations to Florida. Signature gathering for ballot qualification remains incomplete, with only 25% reported in early March and a July deadline looming, underscoring certification risks.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$2,932,562Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for the California one-time wealth tax on billionaires passing in the November 2026 election, driven by Governor Gavin Newsom's public opposition in his final year, which could sway voters amid state budget pressures. Recent CalMatters reporting highlights divisions among liberal Democrats and labor unions, eroding potential support despite March polls from POLITICO and UC Berkeley showing slim majority backing. Billionaires have pledged $35 million to fund counter-initiatives and opposition campaigns, while studies like Hoover Institution's estimate net state revenue losses from wealthy exodus—evidenced by relocations to Florida. Signature gathering for ballot qualification remains incomplete, with only 25% reported in early March and a July deadline looming, underscoring certification risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular