Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no hurricane—defined as a category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale—making US landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook confirming no active tropical cyclones or areas of interest amid cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained development in the main development region. High vertical wind shear and unfavorable upper-level patterns further suppress early formation, aligning with historical rarity: only two US hurricane landfalls before June since 1851. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity overall. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen rapid SST warmup or shear collapse enabling a subtropical upgrade, with NHC outlooks intensifying from May 15.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBir kasırga 31 Mayıs'a kadar ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
Bir kasırga 31 Mayıs'a kadar ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
$13,870 Hac.
$13,870 Hac.
31 May 2026
$13,870 Hac.
$13,870 Hac.
31 May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no hurricane—defined as a category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale—making US landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook confirming no active tropical cyclones or areas of interest amid cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained development in the main development region. High vertical wind shear and unfavorable upper-level patterns further suppress early formation, aligning with historical rarity: only two US hurricane landfalls before June since 1851. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity overall. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen rapid SST warmup or shear collapse enabling a subtropical upgrade, with NHC outlooks intensifying from May 15.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Hacim
$13,870Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no hurricane—defined as a category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale—making US landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook confirming no active tropical cyclones or areas of interest amid cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained development in the main development region. High vertical wind shear and unfavorable upper-level patterns further suppress early formation, aligning with historical rarity: only two US hurricane landfalls before June since 1851. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity overall. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen rapid SST warmup or shear collapse enabling a subtropical upgrade, with NHC outlooks intensifying from May 15.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Hacim
$13,870Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no hurricane—defined as a category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale—making US landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook confirming no active tropical cyclones or areas of interest amid cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained development in the main development region. High vertical wind shear and unfavorable upper-level patterns further suppress early formation, aligning with historical rarity: only two US hurricane landfalls before June since 1851. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity overall. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen rapid SST warmup or shear collapse enabling a subtropical upgrade, with NHC outlooks intensifying from May 15.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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