Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 or higher in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring globally about once every 50–80 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai in 2022 borderline at VEI 5–6. Current monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) shows no volcanoes at elevated alert levels with precursors like intense seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or significant gas emissions signaling caldera-forming potential; as of mid-April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide, all low VEI (≤4). Axial Seamount's anticipated effusive activity remains far below explosive thresholds. Weekly GVP updates and USGS alerts will track any shifts in real time.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da büyük yanardağ patlaması (VEI ≥6)?
2026 'da büyük yanardağ patlaması (VEI ≥6)?
Evet
$55,803 Hac.
$55,803 Hac.
31 Mar 2027
Evet
$55,803 Hac.
$55,803 Hac.
31 Mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 or higher in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring globally about once every 50–80 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai in 2022 borderline at VEI 5–6. Current monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) shows no volcanoes at elevated alert levels with precursors like intense seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or significant gas emissions signaling caldera-forming potential; as of mid-April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide, all low VEI (≤4). Axial Seamount's anticipated effusive activity remains far below explosive thresholds. Weekly GVP updates and USGS alerts will track any shifts in real time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Hacim
$55,803Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 or higher in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring globally about once every 50–80 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai in 2022 borderline at VEI 5–6. Current monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) shows no volcanoes at elevated alert levels with precursors like intense seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or significant gas emissions signaling caldera-forming potential; as of mid-April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide, all low VEI (≤4). Axial Seamount's anticipated effusive activity remains far below explosive thresholds. Weekly GVP updates and USGS alerts will track any shifts in real time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Hacim
$55,803Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability for no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 or higher in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring globally about once every 50–80 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai in 2022 borderline at VEI 5–6. Current monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) shows no volcanoes at elevated alert levels with precursors like intense seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or significant gas emissions signaling caldera-forming potential; as of mid-April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide, all low VEI (≤4). Axial Seamount's anticipated effusive activity remains far below explosive thresholds. Weekly GVP updates and USGS alerts will track any shifts in real time.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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