Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% and one at 35.5%, driven by the absence of any such events through mid-April 2026 despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per the Smithsonian-USGS Global Volcanism Program. Historical data shows VEI≥4 occurrences averaging about one per year globally, with ejecta volumes of at least 0.1 cubic kilometers and plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, but years with zero are common due to clustering and monitoring challenges. Current USGS reports highlight effusive activity at Kīlauea, Great Sitkin, and Shishaldin—below VEI≥4 thresholds—with no significant seismic or deformation spikes signaling imminent large blasts. Weekly GVP updates and alert elevations could shift odds as the year progresses.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da kaç büyük yanardağ patlaması (VEI ≥4) oldu?
2026 'da kaç büyük yanardağ patlaması (VEI ≥4) oldu?
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$992,972 Hac.
$992,972 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
0
53%
1
36%
2
6%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
1%
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$992,972 Hac.
$992,972 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
0
$446,751 Hac.
53%
1
$249,985 Hac.
36%
2
$21,796 Hac.
6%
3
$15,221 Hac.
2%
4
$15,476 Hac.
<1%
5+
$243,743 Hac.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% and one at 35.5%, driven by the absence of any such events through mid-April 2026 despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per the Smithsonian-USGS Global Volcanism Program. Historical data shows VEI≥4 occurrences averaging about one per year globally, with ejecta volumes of at least 0.1 cubic kilometers and plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, but years with zero are common due to clustering and monitoring challenges. Current USGS reports highlight effusive activity at Kīlauea, Great Sitkin, and Shishaldin—below VEI≥4 thresholds—with no significant seismic or deformation spikes signaling imminent large blasts. Weekly GVP updates and alert elevations could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Hacim
$992,972Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% and one at 35.5%, driven by the absence of any such events through mid-April 2026 despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per the Smithsonian-USGS Global Volcanism Program. Historical data shows VEI≥4 occurrences averaging about one per year globally, with ejecta volumes of at least 0.1 cubic kilometers and plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, but years with zero are common due to clustering and monitoring challenges. Current USGS reports highlight effusive activity at Kīlauea, Great Sitkin, and Shishaldin—below VEI≥4 thresholds—with no significant seismic or deformation spikes signaling imminent large blasts. Weekly GVP updates and alert elevations could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Hacim
$992,972Bitiş Tarihi
31 Mar 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% and one at 35.5%, driven by the absence of any such events through mid-April 2026 despite 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide per the Smithsonian-USGS Global Volcanism Program. Historical data shows VEI≥4 occurrences averaging about one per year globally, with ejecta volumes of at least 0.1 cubic kilometers and plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, but years with zero are common due to clustering and monitoring challenges. Current USGS reports highlight effusive activity at Kīlauea, Great Sitkin, and Shishaldin—below VEI≥4 thresholds—with no significant seismic or deformation spikes signaling imminent large blasts. Weekly GVP updates and alert elevations could shift odds as the year progresses.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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