Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 59% implied probability against a meteor airburst releasing at least 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, anchored by NASA's CNEOS fireball database logging six small events so far this year—all under 0.4 kt—despite a Q1 surge in visual fireball reports across the U.S. and Europe. Historical data indicate such bolides capable of heavy window damage occur globally roughly once every 1-2 years, yielding an expected annual rate near 0.5 and aligning with the 41% "Yes" odds under Poisson statistics. NASA's Sentry system shows no credible impact risks for 2026, with tiny potential objects at negligible probabilities. Ongoing CNEOS monitoring and NEO surveys like ATLAS will provide real-time updates through December.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da 5 bin tonluk meteor çarpması mı?
2026 'da 5 bin tonluk meteor çarpması mı?
Evet
$291,766 Hac.
$291,766 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$291,766 Hac.
$291,766 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 59% implied probability against a meteor airburst releasing at least 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, anchored by NASA's CNEOS fireball database logging six small events so far this year—all under 0.4 kt—despite a Q1 surge in visual fireball reports across the U.S. and Europe. Historical data indicate such bolides capable of heavy window damage occur globally roughly once every 1-2 years, yielding an expected annual rate near 0.5 and aligning with the 41% "Yes" odds under Poisson statistics. NASA's Sentry system shows no credible impact risks for 2026, with tiny potential objects at negligible probabilities. Ongoing CNEOS monitoring and NEO surveys like ATLAS will provide real-time updates through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Hacim
$291,766Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 59% implied probability against a meteor airburst releasing at least 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, anchored by NASA's CNEOS fireball database logging six small events so far this year—all under 0.4 kt—despite a Q1 surge in visual fireball reports across the U.S. and Europe. Historical data indicate such bolides capable of heavy window damage occur globally roughly once every 1-2 years, yielding an expected annual rate near 0.5 and aligning with the 41% "Yes" odds under Poisson statistics. NASA's Sentry system shows no credible impact risks for 2026, with tiny potential objects at negligible probabilities. Ongoing CNEOS monitoring and NEO surveys like ATLAS will provide real-time updates through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Hacim
$291,766Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 59% implied probability against a meteor airburst releasing at least 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, anchored by NASA's CNEOS fireball database logging six small events so far this year—all under 0.4 kt—despite a Q1 surge in visual fireball reports across the U.S. and Europe. Historical data indicate such bolides capable of heavy window damage occur globally roughly once every 1-2 years, yielding an expected annual rate near 0.5 and aligning with the 41% "Yes" odds under Poisson statistics. NASA's Sentry system shows no credible impact risks for 2026, with tiny potential objects at negligible probabilities. Ongoing CNEOS monitoring and NEO surveys like ATLAS will provide real-time updates through December.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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