NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for potential impacts, lists no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy in 2026, with the closest candidates—small 11-16 meter asteroids like (2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities below 0.004% and insufficient size for such yield. Recent safe close approaches, including house-sized 2026 GD last week, reinforce this trader consensus, as enhanced surveys by Pan-STARRS and NEOWISE have cataloged over 11,000 new asteroids without uncovering threats. Historical fireball data shows events over 100kt occur roughly once per decade, mostly undetected small bolides. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen small meteoroid evading detection, though ongoing observatory updates through year-end provide continued clarity.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for potential impacts, lists no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy in 2026, with the closest candidates—small 11-16 meter asteroids like (2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities below 0.004% and insufficient size for such yield. Recent safe close approaches, including house-sized 2026 GD last week, reinforce this trader consensus, as enhanced surveys by Pan-STARRS and NEOWISE have cataloged over 11,000 new asteroids without uncovering threats. Historical fireball data shows events over 100kt occur roughly once per decade, mostly undetected small bolides. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen small meteoroid evading detection, though ongoing observatory updates through year-end provide continued clarity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Hacim
$7,022Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for potential impacts, lists no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy in 2026, with the closest candidates—small 11-16 meter asteroids like (2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities below 0.004% and insufficient size for such yield. Recent safe close approaches, including house-sized 2026 GD last week, reinforce this trader consensus, as enhanced surveys by Pan-STARRS and NEOWISE have cataloged over 11,000 new asteroids without uncovering threats. Historical fireball data shows events over 100kt occur roughly once per decade, mostly undetected small bolides. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen small meteoroid evading detection, though ongoing observatory updates through year-end provide continued clarity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Hacim
$7,022Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for potential impacts, lists no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy in 2026, with the closest candidates—small 11-16 meter asteroids like (2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible probabilities below 0.004% and insufficient size for such yield. Recent safe close approaches, including house-sized 2026 GD last week, reinforce this trader consensus, as enhanced surveys by Pan-STARRS and NEOWISE have cataloged over 11,000 new asteroids without uncovering threats. Historical fireball data shows events over 100kt occur roughly once per decade, mostly undetected small bolides. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen small meteoroid evading detection, though ongoing observatory updates through year-end provide continued clarity.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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