NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and fireball monitoring confirm no cataloged asteroids pose impact risks for the remainder of 2026, with tiny objects like (2013 TP4) showing negligible probabilities below 0.004%. Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% implied probability due to the rarity of bolides exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent—tracked via U.S. Space Force sensors and GOES satellites—amid comprehensive planetary defense surveillance covering over 95% of kilometer-class threats. A Q1 2026 surge in smaller fireballs, including Ohio's March 17 event (0.25 kt) and Houston's March 21 (0.026 kt), has elevated Yes odds to 23.5%, reflecting potential for undetected mid-sized entries later in the year before December 31 resolution. Ongoing NEO surveys remain the key catalyst.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da büyük meteor çarpması (10kt +)?
2026 'da büyük meteor çarpması (10kt +)?
Evet
$144,425 Hac.
$144,425 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$144,425 Hac.
$144,425 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and fireball monitoring confirm no cataloged asteroids pose impact risks for the remainder of 2026, with tiny objects like (2013 TP4) showing negligible probabilities below 0.004%. Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% implied probability due to the rarity of bolides exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent—tracked via U.S. Space Force sensors and GOES satellites—amid comprehensive planetary defense surveillance covering over 95% of kilometer-class threats. A Q1 2026 surge in smaller fireballs, including Ohio's March 17 event (0.25 kt) and Houston's March 21 (0.026 kt), has elevated Yes odds to 23.5%, reflecting potential for undetected mid-sized entries later in the year before December 31 resolution. Ongoing NEO surveys remain the key catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Hacim
$144,425Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and fireball monitoring confirm no cataloged asteroids pose impact risks for the remainder of 2026, with tiny objects like (2013 TP4) showing negligible probabilities below 0.004%. Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% implied probability due to the rarity of bolides exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent—tracked via U.S. Space Force sensors and GOES satellites—amid comprehensive planetary defense surveillance covering over 95% of kilometer-class threats. A Q1 2026 surge in smaller fireballs, including Ohio's March 17 event (0.25 kt) and Houston's March 21 (0.026 kt), has elevated Yes odds to 23.5%, reflecting potential for undetected mid-sized entries later in the year before December 31 resolution. Ongoing NEO surveys remain the key catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Hacim
$144,425Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and fireball monitoring confirm no cataloged asteroids pose impact risks for the remainder of 2026, with tiny objects like (2013 TP4) showing negligible probabilities below 0.004%. Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% implied probability due to the rarity of bolides exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent—tracked via U.S. Space Force sensors and GOES satellites—amid comprehensive planetary defense surveillance covering over 95% of kilometer-class threats. A Q1 2026 surge in smaller fireballs, including Ohio's March 17 event (0.25 kt) and Houston's March 21 (0.026 kt), has elevated Yes odds to 23.5%, reflecting potential for undetected mid-sized entries later in the year before December 31 resolution. Ongoing NEO surveys remain the key catalyst.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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