Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.5% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity—only four documented cases since 1851 (Able in 1951, Alma in 1970, and earlier unverified systems)—and current conditions per National Hurricane Center (NHC) outlooks showing no tropical cyclone genesis expected in the next seven days, with regular issuance resuming May 15. Sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below optimal thresholds for rapid intensification, compounded by elevated vertical wind shear amid weak La Niña transition. Colorado State University’s April forecast anticipates below-normal seasonal activity overall. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous SST spikes or shear collapse in late May, though NHC monitoring will provide key updates.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi31 Mayıs'a kadar bir kasırga oluşacak mı?
31 Mayıs'a kadar bir kasırga oluşacak mı?
Evet
$41,745 Hac.
$41,745 Hac.
31 May 2026
Evet
$41,745 Hac.
$41,745 Hac.
31 May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.5% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity—only four documented cases since 1851 (Able in 1951, Alma in 1970, and earlier unverified systems)—and current conditions per National Hurricane Center (NHC) outlooks showing no tropical cyclone genesis expected in the next seven days, with regular issuance resuming May 15. Sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below optimal thresholds for rapid intensification, compounded by elevated vertical wind shear amid weak La Niña transition. Colorado State University’s April forecast anticipates below-normal seasonal activity overall. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous SST spikes or shear collapse in late May, though NHC monitoring will provide key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Hacim
$41,745Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.5% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity—only four documented cases since 1851 (Able in 1951, Alma in 1970, and earlier unverified systems)—and current conditions per National Hurricane Center (NHC) outlooks showing no tropical cyclone genesis expected in the next seven days, with regular issuance resuming May 15. Sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below optimal thresholds for rapid intensification, compounded by elevated vertical wind shear amid weak La Niña transition. Colorado State University’s April forecast anticipates below-normal seasonal activity overall. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous SST spikes or shear collapse in late May, though NHC monitoring will provide key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Hacim
$41,745Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.5% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity—only four documented cases since 1851 (Able in 1951, Alma in 1970, and earlier unverified systems)—and current conditions per National Hurricane Center (NHC) outlooks showing no tropical cyclone genesis expected in the next seven days, with regular issuance resuming May 15. Sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below optimal thresholds for rapid intensification, compounded by elevated vertical wind shear amid weak La Niña transition. Colorado State University’s April forecast anticipates below-normal seasonal activity overall. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous SST spikes or shear collapse in late May, though NHC monitoring will provide key updates.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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