Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane making U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center criteria, a 10-kiloton or larger meteor airburst, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, or a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS measurements—owing to the complete absence of such events through mid-April. USGS seismic records show no quakes exceeding M7.5 globally this year, while volcanic activity remains subdued well below VEI 6 thresholds, and no major bolides detected by meteor monitoring networks. Atlantic hurricane season opens June 1 amid neutral ENSO conditions per NOAA, with models forecasting below-average activity akin to recent La Niña-influenced years; historical U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under one per decade. Upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks and real-time advisories will refine remaining-year risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da Doğal Afet mi?
2026 'da Doğal Afet mi?
Evet
$204,182 Hac.
$204,182 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$204,182 Hac.
$204,182 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane making U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center criteria, a 10-kiloton or larger meteor airburst, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, or a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS measurements—owing to the complete absence of such events through mid-April. USGS seismic records show no quakes exceeding M7.5 globally this year, while volcanic activity remains subdued well below VEI 6 thresholds, and no major bolides detected by meteor monitoring networks. Atlantic hurricane season opens June 1 amid neutral ENSO conditions per NOAA, with models forecasting below-average activity akin to recent La Niña-influenced years; historical U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under one per decade. Upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks and real-time advisories will refine remaining-year risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Hacim
$204,182Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane making U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center criteria, a 10-kiloton or larger meteor airburst, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, or a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS measurements—owing to the complete absence of such events through mid-April. USGS seismic records show no quakes exceeding M7.5 globally this year, while volcanic activity remains subdued well below VEI 6 thresholds, and no major bolides detected by meteor monitoring networks. Atlantic hurricane season opens June 1 amid neutral ENSO conditions per NOAA, with models forecasting below-average activity akin to recent La Niña-influenced years; historical U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under one per decade. Upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks and real-time advisories will refine remaining-year risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Hacim
$204,182Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 72% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a Category 5 hurricane making U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center criteria, a 10-kiloton or larger meteor airburst, a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, or a magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS measurements—owing to the complete absence of such events through mid-April. USGS seismic records show no quakes exceeding M7.5 globally this year, while volcanic activity remains subdued well below VEI 6 thresholds, and no major bolides detected by meteor monitoring networks. Atlantic hurricane season opens June 1 amid neutral ENSO conditions per NOAA, with models forecasting below-average activity akin to recent La Niña-influenced years; historical U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average under one per decade. Upcoming NOAA seasonal outlooks and real-time advisories will refine remaining-year risks.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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