Trader consensus on Polymarket favors below 2 inches of total April precipitation in New York City at 58.8% implied probability, driven by scant observed rainfall through April 16 at NOAA-monitored stations like Central Park, where accumulations trail the climatological mid-month benchmark of roughly 1.8 inches amid a prolonged dry spell under persistent upper-level ridging. National Weather Service forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project limited additional precipitation—under 1 inch—for the remaining fortnight, reflecting steering patterns diverting low-pressure systems northward in ENSO-neutral conditions that historically suppress Northeast rainfall. The 2-3 inch outcome at 20% accounts for potential late-month showers, though uncertainty persists with upcoming NWS advisories potentially shifting odds if Atlantic moisture surges develop. Historical April averages hover near 3.6 inches, underscoring the anomalous dryness positioning low-precipitation bins as leaders.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiNisan ayında NYC'de yağış mı?
Nisan ayında NYC'de yağış mı?
<2" 58.7%
2-3" 21%
4-5" 5.8%
>6" 5.8%
$46,482 Hac.
$46,482 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
<2"
59%
2-3"
21%
3-4"
3%
4-5"
6%
5-6"
2%
>6"
6%
<2" 58.7%
2-3" 21%
4-5" 5.8%
>6" 5.8%
$46,482 Hac.
$46,482 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
<2"
$10,003 Hac.
59%
2-3"
$12,172 Hac.
21%
3-4"
$9,357 Hac.
3%
4-5"
$12,853 Hac.
6%
5-6"
$1,052 Hac.
2%
>6"
$1,046 Hac.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors below 2 inches of total April precipitation in New York City at 58.8% implied probability, driven by scant observed rainfall through April 16 at NOAA-monitored stations like Central Park, where accumulations trail the climatological mid-month benchmark of roughly 1.8 inches amid a prolonged dry spell under persistent upper-level ridging. National Weather Service forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project limited additional precipitation—under 1 inch—for the remaining fortnight, reflecting steering patterns diverting low-pressure systems northward in ENSO-neutral conditions that historically suppress Northeast rainfall. The 2-3 inch outcome at 20% accounts for potential late-month showers, though uncertainty persists with upcoming NWS advisories potentially shifting odds if Atlantic moisture surges develop. Historical April averages hover near 3.6 inches, underscoring the anomalous dryness positioning low-precipitation bins as leaders.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Hacim
$46,482Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors below 2 inches of total April precipitation in New York City at 58.8% implied probability, driven by scant observed rainfall through April 16 at NOAA-monitored stations like Central Park, where accumulations trail the climatological mid-month benchmark of roughly 1.8 inches amid a prolonged dry spell under persistent upper-level ridging. National Weather Service forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project limited additional precipitation—under 1 inch—for the remaining fortnight, reflecting steering patterns diverting low-pressure systems northward in ENSO-neutral conditions that historically suppress Northeast rainfall. The 2-3 inch outcome at 20% accounts for potential late-month showers, though uncertainty persists with upcoming NWS advisories potentially shifting odds if Atlantic moisture surges develop. Historical April averages hover near 3.6 inches, underscoring the anomalous dryness positioning low-precipitation bins as leaders.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$46,482Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors below 2 inches of total April precipitation in New York City at 58.8% implied probability, driven by scant observed rainfall through April 16 at NOAA-monitored stations like Central Park, where accumulations trail the climatological mid-month benchmark of roughly 1.8 inches amid a prolonged dry spell under persistent upper-level ridging. National Weather Service forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, project limited additional precipitation—under 1 inch—for the remaining fortnight, reflecting steering patterns diverting low-pressure systems northward in ENSO-neutral conditions that historically suppress Northeast rainfall. The 2-3 inch outcome at 20% accounts for potential late-month showers, though uncertainty persists with upcoming NWS advisories potentially shifting odds if Atlantic moisture surges develop. Historical April averages hover near 3.6 inches, underscoring the anomalous dryness positioning low-precipitation bins as leaders.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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