Trader consensus favors a global mean surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April tracking a moderated anomaly after March's fourth-warmest 1.48ºC (Copernicus bulletin, April 10). Ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—have cooled extremes following the prior El Niño, aligning with historical April climatology and Berkeley Earth's forecast for a 2026 annual similar to 2025's 1.44ºC. Near-record sea surface temperatures in March add upside risk to higher bins like 1.20–1.24ºC (24%), while low odds for <1.10ºC (2.8%) reflect persistent anthropogenic warming trends. Final Copernicus ERA5 confirmation expected late May.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.20–1.24ºC 24%
1.10–1.14ºC 15%
>1.29ºC 9.2%
$118,716 Hac.
$118,716 Hac.
10 May 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
15%
1.15–1.19ºC
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
24%
1.25–1.29ºC
8%
>1.29ºC
9%
1.15–1.19ºC 41%
1.20–1.24ºC 24%
1.10–1.14ºC 15%
>1.29ºC 9.2%
$118,716 Hac.
$118,716 Hac.
10 May 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,923 Hac.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$22,738 Hac.
15%
1.15–1.19ºC
$13,390 Hac.
41%
1.20–1.24ºC
$15,509 Hac.
24%
1.25–1.29ºC
$27,371 Hac.
8%
>1.29ºC
$11,784 Hac.
9%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus favors a global mean surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April tracking a moderated anomaly after March's fourth-warmest 1.48ºC (Copernicus bulletin, April 10). Ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—have cooled extremes following the prior El Niño, aligning with historical April climatology and Berkeley Earth's forecast for a 2026 annual similar to 2025's 1.44ºC. Near-record sea surface temperatures in March add upside risk to higher bins like 1.20–1.24ºC (24%), while low odds for <1.10ºC (2.8%) reflect persistent anthropogenic warming trends. Final Copernicus ERA5 confirmation expected late May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Hacim
$118,716Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus favors a global mean surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April tracking a moderated anomaly after March's fourth-warmest 1.48ºC (Copernicus bulletin, April 10). Ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—have cooled extremes following the prior El Niño, aligning with historical April climatology and Berkeley Earth's forecast for a 2026 annual similar to 2025's 1.44ºC. Near-record sea surface temperatures in March add upside risk to higher bins like 1.20–1.24ºC (24%), while low odds for <1.10ºC (2.8%) reflect persistent anthropogenic warming trends. Final Copernicus ERA5 confirmation expected late May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Hacim
$118,716Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a global mean surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels for April 2026 at 38.5% implied probability, driven by preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-April tracking a moderated anomaly after March's fourth-warmest 1.48ºC (Copernicus bulletin, April 10). Ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through June per NOAA—have cooled extremes following the prior El Niño, aligning with historical April climatology and Berkeley Earth's forecast for a 2026 annual similar to 2025's 1.44ºC. Near-record sea surface temperatures in March add upside risk to higher bins like 1.20–1.24ºC (24%), while low odds for <1.10ºC (2.8%) reflect persistent anthropogenic warming trends. Final Copernicus ERA5 confirmation expected late May.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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