Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 64% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, driven by USGS data showing none recorded in the first four days (through April 16) and no M6+ events since April 4. This quiet period follows a 7.4-magnitude quake near Ternate, Indonesia, on April 1, with global seismic activity returning to baseline levels absent active swarms or fault-specific precursors. Historically, USGS catalogs indicate about one M6.5+ event per week on average, following a Poisson distribution that allows for null weeks roughly 35-40% of the time, though traders price higher odds for zero given the elapsed time without activity. Continuous USGS monitoring via the global seismic network will track any shifts, with resolution post-April 19 based on final cataloged events meeting moment magnitude (Mw) criteria.