Trader consensus on Polymarket evenly splits market-implied odds between 11–13 (27.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, reflecting four USGS-confirmed events year-to-date—including a recent cluster of three along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: a 7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1; 7.3 near Luganville, Vanuatu on March 30; and 7.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on March 24—putting the pace slightly above the 2000–2021 historical average of about 13 annually. Seismic activity follows a Poisson-like distribution with high year-to-year variability (7–24 events), driven by tectonic stress accumulation on global fault lines; lower bins like 8–10 (6.3%) reflect the improbability of a sharp slowdown, while 20+ (14.6%) accounts for potential swarms. USGS catalog updates provide ongoing clarity amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da kaç tane 7.0 veya üzeri deprem var?
2026 'da kaç tane 7.0 veya üzeri deprem var?
11–13 28%
14–16 28%
17–19 22%
20+ 14.6%
$1,232,758 Hac.
$1,232,758 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
<5
<1%
5–7
1%
8–10
6%
11–13
28%
14–16
28%
17–19
22%
20+
15%
11–13 28%
14–16 28%
17–19 22%
20+ 14.6%
$1,232,758 Hac.
$1,232,758 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
<5
$200,798 Hac.
<1%
5–7
$67,358 Hac.
1%
8–10
$123,947 Hac.
6%
11–13
$403,965 Hac.
28%
14–16
$177,030 Hac.
28%
17–19
$202,169 Hac.
22%
20+
$57,490 Hac.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket evenly splits market-implied odds between 11–13 (27.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, reflecting four USGS-confirmed events year-to-date—including a recent cluster of three along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: a 7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1; 7.3 near Luganville, Vanuatu on March 30; and 7.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on March 24—putting the pace slightly above the 2000–2021 historical average of about 13 annually. Seismic activity follows a Poisson-like distribution with high year-to-year variability (7–24 events), driven by tectonic stress accumulation on global fault lines; lower bins like 8–10 (6.3%) reflect the improbability of a sharp slowdown, while 20+ (14.6%) accounts for potential swarms. USGS catalog updates provide ongoing clarity amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Hacim
$1,232,758Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket evenly splits market-implied odds between 11–13 (27.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, reflecting four USGS-confirmed events year-to-date—including a recent cluster of three along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: a 7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1; 7.3 near Luganville, Vanuatu on March 30; and 7.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on March 24—putting the pace slightly above the 2000–2021 historical average of about 13 annually. Seismic activity follows a Poisson-like distribution with high year-to-year variability (7–24 events), driven by tectonic stress accumulation on global fault lines; lower bins like 8–10 (6.3%) reflect the improbability of a sharp slowdown, while 20+ (14.6%) accounts for potential swarms. USGS catalog updates provide ongoing clarity amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Hacim
$1,232,758Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket evenly splits market-implied odds between 11–13 (27.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, reflecting four USGS-confirmed events year-to-date—including a recent cluster of three along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: a 7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1; 7.3 near Luganville, Vanuatu on March 30; and 7.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on March 24—putting the pace slightly above the 2000–2021 historical average of about 13 annually. Seismic activity follows a Poisson-like distribution with high year-to-year variability (7–24 events), driven by tectonic stress accumulation on global fault lines; lower bins like 8–10 (6.3%) reflect the improbability of a sharp slowdown, while 20+ (14.6%) accounts for potential swarms. USGS catalog updates provide ongoing clarity amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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