Trader consensus favors fewer than three major space weather events for April 12-18 at 68% implied probability, driven by zero qualifying incidents to date per NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center records—specifically no G3 (strong) or higher geomagnetic storms, S3 (strong) or higher solar radiation storms, or R3 (strong) or higher radio blackouts under the NOAA scales. Observed activity remains minimal, with only B-class solar flares from minor active regions like 4419 and 4416 through April 16, and quiet geomagnetic conditions persisting since the last G3 event on April 3. Forecasts from SWPC indicate low solar and geomagnetic activity through week's end, with no watches for significant disturbances, though inherent solar flare unpredictability leaves room for upside surprises in the final days.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHow many major Space Weather events this week? (April 12 - April 18)
How many major Space Weather events this week? (April 12 - April 18)
<3 68%
3 27.1%
7 21%
6 8%
$10,077 Hac.
$10,077 Hac.
18 Nis 2026
<3
68%
3
27%
4
6%
5
5%
6
8%
7
21%
8+
10%
<3 68%
3 27.1%
7 21%
6 8%
$10,077 Hac.
$10,077 Hac.
18 Nis 2026
<3
$6,327 Hac.
68%
3
$306 Hac.
27%
4
$3,205 Hac.
6%
5
$57 Hac.
5%
6
$72 Hac.
8%
7
$57 Hac.
21%
8+
$55 Hac.
10%
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus favors fewer than three major space weather events for April 12-18 at 68% implied probability, driven by zero qualifying incidents to date per NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center records—specifically no G3 (strong) or higher geomagnetic storms, S3 (strong) or higher solar radiation storms, or R3 (strong) or higher radio blackouts under the NOAA scales. Observed activity remains minimal, with only B-class solar flares from minor active regions like 4419 and 4416 through April 16, and quiet geomagnetic conditions persisting since the last G3 event on April 3. Forecasts from SWPC indicate low solar and geomagnetic activity through week's end, with no watches for significant disturbances, though inherent solar flare unpredictability leaves room for upside surprises in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Hacim
$10,077Bitiş Tarihi
18 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus favors fewer than three major space weather events for April 12-18 at 68% implied probability, driven by zero qualifying incidents to date per NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center records—specifically no G3 (strong) or higher geomagnetic storms, S3 (strong) or higher solar radiation storms, or R3 (strong) or higher radio blackouts under the NOAA scales. Observed activity remains minimal, with only B-class solar flares from minor active regions like 4419 and 4416 through April 16, and quiet geomagnetic conditions persisting since the last G3 event on April 3. Forecasts from SWPC indicate low solar and geomagnetic activity through week's end, with no watches for significant disturbances, though inherent solar flare unpredictability leaves room for upside surprises in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Hacim
$10,077Bitiş Tarihi
18 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors fewer than three major space weather events for April 12-18 at 68% implied probability, driven by zero qualifying incidents to date per NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center records—specifically no G3 (strong) or higher geomagnetic storms, S3 (strong) or higher solar radiation storms, or R3 (strong) or higher radio blackouts under the NOAA scales. Observed activity remains minimal, with only B-class solar flares from minor active regions like 4419 and 4416 through April 16, and quiet geomagnetic conditions persisting since the last G3 event on April 3. Forecasts from SWPC indicate low solar and geomagnetic activity through week's end, with no watches for significant disturbances, though inherent solar flare unpredictability leaves room for upside surprises in the final days.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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