Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8 or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, at 78.5% implied probability, driven by four confirmed events already this year per USGS data: a M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22; M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24; M7.3 offshore Vanuatu on March 30; and M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1. This recent Pacific Ring of Fire cluster—three in eight days—has accelerated the pace beyond the historical global average of about 15 M7+ quakes annually, positioning traders to anticipate at least four more in the remaining 75 days amid ongoing tectonic stress along subduction zones. USGS real-time seismic monitoring shows no unusual global uptick beyond normal variability, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainty, with catalog updates available continuously.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi30 Haziran'a kadar kaç tane 7.0 veya üzeri deprem olacak?
30 Haziran'a kadar kaç tane 7.0 veya üzeri deprem olacak?
8+ 79%
7 18%
6 3.4%
$1,818,047 Hac.
$1,818,047 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
6
3%
7
18%
8+
79%
8+ 79%
7 18%
6 3.4%
$1,818,047 Hac.
$1,818,047 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
6
$118,438 Hac.
3%
7
$277,673 Hac.
18%
8+
$537,812 Hac.
79%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8 or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, at 78.5% implied probability, driven by four confirmed events already this year per USGS data: a M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22; M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24; M7.3 offshore Vanuatu on March 30; and M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1. This recent Pacific Ring of Fire cluster—three in eight days—has accelerated the pace beyond the historical global average of about 15 M7+ quakes annually, positioning traders to anticipate at least four more in the remaining 75 days amid ongoing tectonic stress along subduction zones. USGS real-time seismic monitoring shows no unusual global uptick beyond normal variability, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainty, with catalog updates available continuously.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Hacim
$1,818,047Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8 or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, at 78.5% implied probability, driven by four confirmed events already this year per USGS data: a M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22; M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24; M7.3 offshore Vanuatu on March 30; and M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1. This recent Pacific Ring of Fire cluster—three in eight days—has accelerated the pace beyond the historical global average of about 15 M7+ quakes annually, positioning traders to anticipate at least four more in the remaining 75 days amid ongoing tectonic stress along subduction zones. USGS real-time seismic monitoring shows no unusual global uptick beyond normal variability, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainty, with catalog updates available continuously.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Hacim
$1,818,047Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 8 or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, at 78.5% implied probability, driven by four confirmed events already this year per USGS data: a M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22; M7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24; M7.3 offshore Vanuatu on March 30; and M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1. This recent Pacific Ring of Fire cluster—three in eight days—has accelerated the pace beyond the historical global average of about 15 M7+ quakes annually, positioning traders to anticipate at least four more in the remaining 75 days amid ongoing tectonic stress along subduction zones. USGS real-time seismic monitoring shows no unusual global uptick beyond normal variability, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainty, with catalog updates available continuously.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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