Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 88% chance that 2026 ranks 1st or 2nd among the hottest years on record, driven by an exceptionally warm start despite fading La Niña influences—March 2026 marked the fourth-warmest March globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service, with surface air temperatures 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels and near-record sea surface temperatures over 60°S–60°N. NOAA's year-to-date outlook gives a 98.4% probability of a top-5 finish, while emerging El Niño conditions (61% chance by May–July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center, persisting through year-end) are poised to amplify summer and fall anomalies, challenging 2024's record amid ongoing anthropogenic warming and elevated baseline heat. New seasonal forecasts and monthly bulletins will refine these trajectories.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026, kayıtlardaki en sıcak yıllar arasında nerede yer alacak?
2026, kayıtlardaki en sıcak yıllar arasında nerede yer alacak?
2 52%
1 37%
4 5.1%
3 4.5%
$2,620,845 Hac.
$2,620,845 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
1
37%
2
52%
3
5%
4
5%
5
1%
6 veya daha düşük
2%
2 52%
1 37%
4 5.1%
3 4.5%
$2,620,845 Hac.
$2,620,845 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
1
$414,321 Hac.
37%
2
$289,454 Hac.
52%
3
$387,818 Hac.
5%
4
$386,657 Hac.
5%
5
$697,467 Hac.
1%
6 veya daha düşük
$445,195 Hac.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 88% chance that 2026 ranks 1st or 2nd among the hottest years on record, driven by an exceptionally warm start despite fading La Niña influences—March 2026 marked the fourth-warmest March globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service, with surface air temperatures 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels and near-record sea surface temperatures over 60°S–60°N. NOAA's year-to-date outlook gives a 98.4% probability of a top-5 finish, while emerging El Niño conditions (61% chance by May–July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center, persisting through year-end) are poised to amplify summer and fall anomalies, challenging 2024's record amid ongoing anthropogenic warming and elevated baseline heat. New seasonal forecasts and monthly bulletins will refine these trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Hacim
$2,620,845Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 88% chance that 2026 ranks 1st or 2nd among the hottest years on record, driven by an exceptionally warm start despite fading La Niña influences—March 2026 marked the fourth-warmest March globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service, with surface air temperatures 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels and near-record sea surface temperatures over 60°S–60°N. NOAA's year-to-date outlook gives a 98.4% probability of a top-5 finish, while emerging El Niño conditions (61% chance by May–July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center, persisting through year-end) are poised to amplify summer and fall anomalies, challenging 2024's record amid ongoing anthropogenic warming and elevated baseline heat. New seasonal forecasts and monthly bulletins will refine these trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$2,620,845Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 88% chance that 2026 ranks 1st or 2nd among the hottest years on record, driven by an exceptionally warm start despite fading La Niña influences—March 2026 marked the fourth-warmest March globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service, with surface air temperatures 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels and near-record sea surface temperatures over 60°S–60°N. NOAA's year-to-date outlook gives a 98.4% probability of a top-5 finish, while emerging El Niño conditions (61% chance by May–July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center, persisting through year-end) are poised to amplify summer and fall anomalies, challenging 2024's record amid ongoing anthropogenic warming and elevated baseline heat. New seasonal forecasts and monthly bulletins will refine these trajectories.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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