Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to at least one 2026 month becoming the hottest on record per NOAA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driven by NOAA's latest forecast of El Niño emergence by June-August (62% chance, persisting through year-end) atop a baseline warming trend exceeding 1.2°C above 20th-century averages. Early 2026 months ranked highly—January fifth-warmest, February fifth, and March tied second—following 2025 as the third-hottest year, underscoring relentless anthropogenic forcing despite recent ENSO-neutral conditions. While model consensus supports record-shattering potential in peak Northern Hemisphere summer, uncertainties like forecast divergence or transient cooling factors persist; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and monthly bulletins for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'nın herhangi bir ayı kayıtlardaki en sıcak ay olacak mı?
2026 'nın herhangi bir ayı kayıtlardaki en sıcak ay olacak mı?
Evet
$120,122 Hac.
$120,122 Hac.
10 Oca 2027
Evet
$120,122 Hac.
$120,122 Hac.
10 Oca 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to at least one 2026 month becoming the hottest on record per NOAA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driven by NOAA's latest forecast of El Niño emergence by June-August (62% chance, persisting through year-end) atop a baseline warming trend exceeding 1.2°C above 20th-century averages. Early 2026 months ranked highly—January fifth-warmest, February fifth, and March tied second—following 2025 as the third-hottest year, underscoring relentless anthropogenic forcing despite recent ENSO-neutral conditions. While model consensus supports record-shattering potential in peak Northern Hemisphere summer, uncertainties like forecast divergence or transient cooling factors persist; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and monthly bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Hacim
$120,122Bitiş Tarihi
10 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to at least one 2026 month becoming the hottest on record per NOAA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driven by NOAA's latest forecast of El Niño emergence by June-August (62% chance, persisting through year-end) atop a baseline warming trend exceeding 1.2°C above 20th-century averages. Early 2026 months ranked highly—January fifth-warmest, February fifth, and March tied second—following 2025 as the third-hottest year, underscoring relentless anthropogenic forcing despite recent ENSO-neutral conditions. While model consensus supports record-shattering potential in peak Northern Hemisphere summer, uncertainties like forecast divergence or transient cooling factors persist; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and monthly bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Hacim
$120,122Bitiş Tarihi
10 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to at least one 2026 month becoming the hottest on record per NOAA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driven by NOAA's latest forecast of El Niño emergence by June-August (62% chance, persisting through year-end) atop a baseline warming trend exceeding 1.2°C above 20th-century averages. Early 2026 months ranked highly—January fifth-warmest, February fifth, and March tied second—following 2025 as the third-hottest year, underscoring relentless anthropogenic forcing despite recent ENSO-neutral conditions. While model consensus supports record-shattering potential in peak Northern Hemisphere summer, uncertainties like forecast divergence or transient cooling factors persist; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and monthly bulletins for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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