Trader consensus on Polymarket positions April 2026 as the third-hottest April on record at 67% implied probability, driven by near-real-time ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus showing mid-month global surface air temperature anomalies tracking above the 2023 benchmark but below the record set by April 2024 (1.58–1.78°C above pre-industrial levels) and second-place April 2025. Lingering La Niña effects from early 2026, now transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions per NOAA, have suppressed anomalies by an estimated 0.1–0.2°C relative to prior El Niño-fueled peaks, creating a narrow path to third while introducing downside risk to fourth or lower (17%). A recent 24-hour rally reflects growing confidence amid thin liquidity, with final resolution hinging on NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index and NASA GISTEMP datasets expected in early May.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3rd hottest 65%
2nd hottest 16%
4th or lower 11%
1st hottest 5.0%
$70,543 Hac.
$70,543 Hac.
10 May 2026
1st hottest
5%
2nd hottest
16%
3rd hottest
65%
4th or lower
13%
3rd hottest 65%
2nd hottest 16%
4th or lower 11%
1st hottest 5.0%
$70,543 Hac.
$70,543 Hac.
10 May 2026
1st hottest
$7,350 Hac.
5%
2nd hottest
$21,052 Hac.
16%
3rd hottest
$14,434 Hac.
65%
4th or lower
$27,708 Hac.
13%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions April 2026 as the third-hottest April on record at 67% implied probability, driven by near-real-time ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus showing mid-month global surface air temperature anomalies tracking above the 2023 benchmark but below the record set by April 2024 (1.58–1.78°C above pre-industrial levels) and second-place April 2025. Lingering La Niña effects from early 2026, now transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions per NOAA, have suppressed anomalies by an estimated 0.1–0.2°C relative to prior El Niño-fueled peaks, creating a narrow path to third while introducing downside risk to fourth or lower (17%). A recent 24-hour rally reflects growing confidence amid thin liquidity, with final resolution hinging on NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index and NASA GISTEMP datasets expected in early May.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Hacim
$70,543Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions April 2026 as the third-hottest April on record at 67% implied probability, driven by near-real-time ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus showing mid-month global surface air temperature anomalies tracking above the 2023 benchmark but below the record set by April 2024 (1.58–1.78°C above pre-industrial levels) and second-place April 2025. Lingering La Niña effects from early 2026, now transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions per NOAA, have suppressed anomalies by an estimated 0.1–0.2°C relative to prior El Niño-fueled peaks, creating a narrow path to third while introducing downside risk to fourth or lower (17%). A recent 24-hour rally reflects growing confidence amid thin liquidity, with final resolution hinging on NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index and NASA GISTEMP datasets expected in early May.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Hacim
$70,543Bitiş Tarihi
10 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions April 2026 as the third-hottest April on record at 67% implied probability, driven by near-real-time ERA5 reanalysis data from Copernicus showing mid-month global surface air temperature anomalies tracking above the 2023 benchmark but below the record set by April 2024 (1.58–1.78°C above pre-industrial levels) and second-place April 2025. Lingering La Niña effects from early 2026, now transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions per NOAA, have suppressed anomalies by an estimated 0.1–0.2°C relative to prior El Niño-fueled peaks, creating a narrow path to third while introducing downside risk to fourth or lower (17%). A recent 24-hour rally reflects growing confidence amid thin liquidity, with final resolution hinging on NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index and NASA GISTEMP datasets expected in early May.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular