Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast of below-normal Atlantic activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes—amid expected El Niño emergence by summer, which typically suppresses tropical cyclone formation through increased wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. The hyperactive 2025 season produced a record three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), yet none struck the U.S. mainland, highlighting the rarity of such events; only four have occurred since 1851 per National Hurricane Center records (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018). With the 2026 season starting June 1, initial model runs show low landfall odds for majors (32% U.S. coastline), and Cat 5 intensification requires rare rapid strengthening near coastlines. Updated NOAA outlooks expected soon could shift sentiment.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiKategori 5 kasırgalarından herhangi biri 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
Kategori 5 kasırgalarından herhangi biri 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
Evet
$131,431 Hac.
$131,431 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$131,431 Hac.
$131,431 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast of below-normal Atlantic activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes—amid expected El Niño emergence by summer, which typically suppresses tropical cyclone formation through increased wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. The hyperactive 2025 season produced a record three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), yet none struck the U.S. mainland, highlighting the rarity of such events; only four have occurred since 1851 per National Hurricane Center records (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018). With the 2026 season starting June 1, initial model runs show low landfall odds for majors (32% U.S. coastline), and Cat 5 intensification requires rare rapid strengthening near coastlines. Updated NOAA outlooks expected soon could shift sentiment.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Hacim
$131,431Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast of below-normal Atlantic activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes—amid expected El Niño emergence by summer, which typically suppresses tropical cyclone formation through increased wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. The hyperactive 2025 season produced a record three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), yet none struck the U.S. mainland, highlighting the rarity of such events; only four have occurred since 1851 per National Hurricane Center records (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018). With the 2026 season starting June 1, initial model runs show low landfall odds for majors (32% U.S. coastline), and Cat 5 intensification requires rare rapid strengthening near coastlines. Updated NOAA outlooks expected soon could shift sentiment.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Hacim
$131,431Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by Colorado State University's April 2026 forecast of below-normal Atlantic activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes—amid expected El Niño emergence by summer, which typically suppresses tropical cyclone formation through increased wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. The hyperactive 2025 season produced a record three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), yet none struck the U.S. mainland, highlighting the rarity of such events; only four have occurred since 1851 per National Hurricane Center records (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018). With the 2026 season starting June 1, initial model runs show low landfall odds for majors (32% U.S. coastline), and Cat 5 intensification requires rare rapid strengthening near coastlines. Updated NOAA outlooks expected soon could shift sentiment.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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