NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose an impact risk for 2026, with zero probabilities listed for potential collisions capable of a 1-megaton TNT-equivalent airburst—the energy of a ~50-meter asteroid. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 99% of kilometer-class threats and most smaller potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), leaving trader consensus at 96.2% "No" backed by this authoritative monitoring. Recent 2026 close approaches involved only house- or bus-sized rocks at safe distances. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small bolide or comet fragment exceeding the threshold, though historical rates (e.g., Chelyabinsk at 0.5 megatons) suggest annual odds below 1%, with ongoing fireball detection networks providing real-time updates.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da 1 megaton meteor mu düştü?
2026 'da 1 megaton meteor mu düştü?
Evet
$104,378 Hac.
$104,378 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$104,378 Hac.
$104,378 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose an impact risk for 2026, with zero probabilities listed for potential collisions capable of a 1-megaton TNT-equivalent airburst—the energy of a ~50-meter asteroid. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 99% of kilometer-class threats and most smaller potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), leaving trader consensus at 96.2% "No" backed by this authoritative monitoring. Recent 2026 close approaches involved only house- or bus-sized rocks at safe distances. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small bolide or comet fragment exceeding the threshold, though historical rates (e.g., Chelyabinsk at 0.5 megatons) suggest annual odds below 1%, with ongoing fireball detection networks providing real-time updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Hacim
$104,378Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose an impact risk for 2026, with zero probabilities listed for potential collisions capable of a 1-megaton TNT-equivalent airburst—the energy of a ~50-meter asteroid. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 99% of kilometer-class threats and most smaller potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), leaving trader consensus at 96.2% "No" backed by this authoritative monitoring. Recent 2026 close approaches involved only house- or bus-sized rocks at safe distances. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small bolide or comet fragment exceeding the threshold, though historical rates (e.g., Chelyabinsk at 0.5 megatons) suggest annual odds below 1%, with ongoing fireball detection networks providing real-time updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Hacim
$104,378Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose an impact risk for 2026, with zero probabilities listed for potential collisions capable of a 1-megaton TNT-equivalent airburst—the energy of a ~50-meter asteroid. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 99% of kilometer-class threats and most smaller potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), leaving trader consensus at 96.2% "No" backed by this authoritative monitoring. Recent 2026 close approaches involved only house- or bus-sized rocks at safe distances. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small bolide or comet fragment exceeding the threshold, though historical rates (e.g., Chelyabinsk at 0.5 megatons) suggest annual odds below 1%, with ongoing fireball detection networks providing real-time updates.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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