Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+), amid weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by mid-summer, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, following Helene's Category 4 strike on Florida's Big Bend in 2024. Historical data shows continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls occur roughly once every 3-5 years on average, with NOAA's upcoming May outlook likely to refine these projections as pre-season patterns emerge.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHerhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
Herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
Evet
$324,380 Hac.
$324,380 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$324,380 Hac.
$324,380 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+), amid weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by mid-summer, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, following Helene's Category 4 strike on Florida's Big Bend in 2024. Historical data shows continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls occur roughly once every 3-5 years on average, with NOAA's upcoming May outlook likely to refine these projections as pre-season patterns emerge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Hacim
$324,380Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+), amid weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by mid-summer, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, following Helene's Category 4 strike on Florida's Big Bend in 2024. Historical data shows continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls occur roughly once every 3-5 years on average, with NOAA's upcoming May outlook likely to refine these projections as pre-season patterns emerge.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Hacim
$324,380Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven primarily by Colorado State University's April 9 forecast for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+), amid weak La Niña conditions transitioning to El Niño by mid-summer, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation and intensification. The 2025 season featured three Category 5 storms but zero U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, following Helene's Category 4 strike on Florida's Big Bend in 2024. Historical data shows continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls occur roughly once every 3-5 years on average, with NOAA's upcoming May outlook likely to refine these projections as pre-season patterns emerge.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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