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İklim Ve Bilim·Climate

Herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?

Market icon
İklim Ve Bilim·Climate

Herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?

Evet

37% olasılık
Polymarket

$324,304 Hac.

Evet

37% olasılık
Polymarket

$324,304 Hac.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph at U.S. continental landfall—before 2027, driven by the 2025 Atlantic season's striking lack of any U.S. hurricane landfalls despite three Category 5 storms forming and recurve patterns steering them seaward, per NOAA summaries. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity, with 13 named storms and six hurricanes amid weak La Niña conditions and neutral-to-cooler sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region. NOAA estimates a 32% chance of any major hurricane landfall, underscoring Cat 4 rarity (historically ~0.2 per season). Upcoming NOAA outlooks in May and June 1 season start could shift odds as models refine.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Hacim
$324,304
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favors "No" at 63.5% implied probability for a Category 4 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 130-156 mph at U.S. continental landfall—before 2027, driven by the 2025 Atlantic season's striking lack of any U.S. hurricane landfalls despite three Category 5 storms forming and recurve patterns steering them seaward, per NOAA summaries. Early 2026 forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal activity, with 13 named storms and six hurricanes amid weak La Niña conditions and neutral-to-cooler sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region. NOAA estimates a 32% chance of any major hurricane landfall, underscoring Cat 4 rarity (historically ~0.2 per season). Upcoming NOAA outlooks in May and June 1 season start could shift odds as models refine.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Hacim
$324,304
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 2 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 37% ile "2027'den önce ABD'de herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası karaya çıkacak mı?"dir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 37¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 37% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "Herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?" toplam $324.3K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Dec 29, 2025 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"Herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 2 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"Herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?" için mevcut favori 37% ile "2027'den önce ABD'de herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası karaya çıkacak mı?"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 37% olasılık atamaktadır. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"Herhangi bir Kategori 4 kasırgası 2027 'den önce ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.