Trader consensus prices an 85% implied probability that Virginia's April 21 constitutional amendment referendum will pass, driven by robust early voting turnout exceeding 1.1 million ballots as of April 16—nearly matching last year's gubernatorial election—and Democratic strongholds like Fairfax County and Northern Virginia surging to close an initial Republican-leaning district advantage. Recent polls, including a George Mason University/Washington Post survey showing 52% support and a Quantus poll at 51-47% Yes even after map details, indicate a narrow edge amid heavy pro-amendment fundraising by Democrats seeking to redraw congressional districts into a 10-1 partisan advantage for 2026 midterms. The Supreme Court of Virginia's February ruling cleared the ballot path, though odds exceed polling averages, betting on urban mobilization and low-motivation GOP turnout in this special election. Final early voting ends April 18.
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$434,513 Hac.
$434,513 Hac.
21 Nis 2026
Evet
$434,513 Hac.
$434,513 Hac.
21 Nis 2026
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Trader consensus prices an 85% implied probability that Virginia's April 21 constitutional amendment referendum will pass, driven by robust early voting turnout exceeding 1.1 million ballots as of April 16—nearly matching last year's gubernatorial election—and Democratic strongholds like Fairfax County and Northern Virginia surging to close an initial Republican-leaning district advantage. Recent polls, including a George Mason University/Washington Post survey showing 52% support and a Quantus poll at 51-47% Yes even after map details, indicate a narrow edge amid heavy pro-amendment fundraising by Democrats seeking to redraw congressional districts into a 10-1 partisan advantage for 2026 midterms. The Supreme Court of Virginia's February ruling cleared the ballot path, though odds exceed polling averages, betting on urban mobilization and low-motivation GOP turnout in this special election. Final early voting ends April 18.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Hacim
$434,513Bitiş Tarihi
21 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Trader consensus prices an 85% implied probability that Virginia's April 21 constitutional amendment referendum will pass, driven by robust early voting turnout exceeding 1.1 million ballots as of April 16—nearly matching last year's gubernatorial election—and Democratic strongholds like Fairfax County and Northern Virginia surging to close an initial Republican-leaning district advantage. Recent polls, including a George Mason University/Washington Post survey showing 52% support and a Quantus poll at 51-47% Yes even after map details, indicate a narrow edge amid heavy pro-amendment fundraising by Democrats seeking to redraw congressional districts into a 10-1 partisan advantage for 2026 midterms. The Supreme Court of Virginia's February ruling cleared the ballot path, though odds exceed polling averages, betting on urban mobilization and low-motivation GOP turnout in this special election. Final early voting ends April 18.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Hacim
$434,513Bitiş Tarihi
21 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 85% implied probability that Virginia's April 21 constitutional amendment referendum will pass, driven by robust early voting turnout exceeding 1.1 million ballots as of April 16—nearly matching last year's gubernatorial election—and Democratic strongholds like Fairfax County and Northern Virginia surging to close an initial Republican-leaning district advantage. Recent polls, including a George Mason University/Washington Post survey showing 52% support and a Quantus poll at 51-47% Yes even after map details, indicate a narrow edge amid heavy pro-amendment fundraising by Democrats seeking to redraw congressional districts into a 10-1 partisan advantage for 2026 midterms. The Supreme Court of Virginia's February ruling cleared the ballot path, though odds exceed polling averages, betting on urban mobilization and low-motivation GOP turnout in this special election. Final early voting ends April 18.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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