**Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the SPD consistently in the low-to-mid teens, with aggregates around 13% and the latest INSA survey (August 7–13) at 15%.** This places the party well behind the leading CDU, Die Linke, AfD, and Greens, all clustered in the high teens to low twenties. The current CDU-SPD coalition government appears unlikely to retain a majority on present trends, reflecting SPD weakness amid national headwinds including economic pressures and immigration debates that have boosted AfD support. Trader positioning on the 10–13% and 13–16% bins reflects polling volatility in the final month, candidate changes (CDU switched to Stefan Evers; SPD fields Steffen Krach), and the competitive four-way race at the top. Late-campaign developments such as turnout shifts, further scandals, or last-minute voter movements among undecideds could still push SPD results toward either side of the 13% threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
10-13% 36%
13-16% 35%
16%+ 19%
<10% 5.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
6%
10-13%
36%
13-16%
35%
16%+
19%
10-13% 36%
13-16% 35%
16%+ 19%
<10% 5.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
$236 Обс.
6%
10-13%
$366 Обс.
36%
13-16%
$204 Обс.
35%
16%+
$284 Обс.
19%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the SPD consistently in the low-to-mid teens, with aggregates around 13% and the latest INSA survey (August 7–13) at 15%.** This places the party well behind the leading CDU, Die Linke, AfD, and Greens, all clustered in the high teens to low twenties. The current CDU-SPD coalition government appears unlikely to retain a majority on present trends, reflecting SPD weakness amid national headwinds including economic pressures and immigration debates that have boosted AfD support.
Trader positioning on the 10–13% and 13–16% bins reflects polling volatility in the final month, candidate changes (CDU switched to Stefan Evers; SPD fields Steffen Krach), and the competitive four-way race at the top. Late-campaign developments such as turnout shifts, further scandals, or last-minute voter movements among undecideds could still push SPD results toward either side of the 13% threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,090Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the SPD consistently in the low-to-mid teens, with aggregates around 13% and the latest INSA survey (August 7–13) at 15%.** This places the party well behind the leading CDU, Die Linke, AfD, and Greens, all clustered in the high teens to low twenties. The current CDU-SPD coalition government appears unlikely to retain a majority on present trends, reflecting SPD weakness amid national headwinds including economic pressures and immigration debates that have boosted AfD support.
Trader positioning on the 10–13% and 13–16% bins reflects polling volatility in the final month, candidate changes (CDU switched to Stefan Evers; SPD fields Steffen Krach), and the competitive four-way race at the top. Late-campaign developments such as turnout shifts, further scandals, or last-minute voter movements among undecideds could still push SPD results toward either side of the 13% threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Обсяг
$1,090Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the SPD consistently in the low-to-mid teens, with aggregates around 13% and the latest INSA survey (August 7–13) at 15%.** This places the party well behind the leading CDU, Die Linke, AfD, and Greens, all clustered in the high teens to low twenties. The current CDU-SPD coalition government appears unlikely to retain a majority on present trends, reflecting SPD weakness amid national headwinds including economic pressures and immigration debates that have boosted AfD support. Trader positioning on the 10–13% and 13–16% bins reflects polling volatility in the final month, candidate changes (CDU switched to Stefan Evers; SPD fields Steffen Krach), and the competitive four-way race at the top. Late-campaign developments such as turnout shifts, further scandals, or last-minute voter movements among undecideds could still push SPD results toward either side of the 13% threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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