Traders have placed overwhelming confidence in "Other" at 94.5% implied probability for the best AI model on August 10, driven by the lack of any confirmed major releases or capability demonstrations expected from Anthropic or competing labs in the next nine days. Current large language model progress remains incremental, with no recent announcements of new Opus, Fable, or comparable variants that would shift benchmarks or real-world performance enough to claim the top spot. The minimal odds on the specific Claude models underscore market consensus that existing leaders will hold steady absent sudden updates. A realistic challenge could emerge only from an unexpected internal Anthropic deployment or third-party evaluation showing superior results before the resolution date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBest AI model on August 10?
Best AI model on August 10?
Other 86.7%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 6.7%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$58,819 Обс.
$58,819 Обс.
Aug 10, 2026
Other
87%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
11%
claude-fable-5
<1%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
Other 86.7%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 6.7%
claude-fable-5 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$58,819 Обс.
$58,819 Обс.
Aug 10, 2026
Other
$31,569 Обс.
87%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$21,542 Обс.
11%
claude-fable-5
$3,364 Обс.
<1%
claude-opus-4-6
$2,345 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have placed overwhelming confidence in "Other" at 94.5% implied probability for the best AI model on August 10, driven by the lack of any confirmed major releases or capability demonstrations expected from Anthropic or competing labs in the next nine days. Current large language model progress remains incremental, with no recent announcements of new Opus, Fable, or comparable variants that would shift benchmarks or real-world performance enough to claim the top spot. The minimal odds on the specific Claude models underscore market consensus that existing leaders will hold steady absent sudden updates. A realistic challenge could emerge only from an unexpected internal Anthropic deployment or third-party evaluation showing superior results before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$58,819Дата завершення
Aug 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have placed overwhelming confidence in "Other" at 94.5% implied probability for the best AI model on August 10, driven by the lack of any confirmed major releases or capability demonstrations expected from Anthropic or competing labs in the next nine days. Current large language model progress remains incremental, with no recent announcements of new Opus, Fable, or comparable variants that would shift benchmarks or real-world performance enough to claim the top spot. The minimal odds on the specific Claude models underscore market consensus that existing leaders will hold steady absent sudden updates. A realistic challenge could emerge only from an unexpected internal Anthropic deployment or third-party evaluation showing superior results before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$58,819Дата завершення
Aug 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have placed overwhelming confidence in "Other" at 94.5% implied probability for the best AI model on August 10, driven by the lack of any confirmed major releases or capability demonstrations expected from Anthropic or competing labs in the next nine days. Current large language model progress remains incremental, with no recent announcements of new Opus, Fable, or comparable variants that would shift benchmarks or real-world performance enough to claim the top spot. The minimal odds on the specific Claude models underscore market consensus that existing leaders will hold steady absent sudden updates. A realistic challenge could emerge only from an unexpected internal Anthropic deployment or third-party evaluation showing superior results before the resolution date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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