Following Sussan Ley's resignation from the safe Liberal seat of Farrer after losing the party leadership to Angus Taylor, trader consensus favors independent Michelle Milthorpe at 54.5% over One Nation's David Farley at 44.5% in the May 9 by-election, with Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski trailing at 5.5% amid a fragmented conservative vote. Nominations closed April 13 and were declared April 14, confirming 12 candidates including Nationals' Brad Robertson, solidifying a preferential contest where Milthorpe's prior 43.8% two-candidate-preferred against Ley, Climate 200 backing, and endorsements from Bob Katter and David Pocock have boosted her standing. Farley's irrigation expertise appeals on cost-of-living and water issues, but resurfaced comments and a campaign clash with Milthorpe via social media have tempered One Nation momentum since early April, despite a March poll showing their primary lead; preferences from Liberals and Nationals will prove decisive ahead of early voting starting April 28.