Recent meteorological model runs from global and regional forecasts indicate a daily maximum temperature in Buenos Aires on June 30 most likely between 13–15 °C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 14 °C (32.5 %) and 15 °C (31.0 %). Mid-latitude winter conditions feature a passing high-pressure ridge with light southerly flow, limited cloud cover, and modest daytime heating under clear to partly cloudy skies, keeping values near seasonal normals of 12–15 °C. Small differences in predicted timing of any weak frontal boundary or boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split between the two leading outcomes, while lower probabilities for 16 °C or above reflect limited warm-air advection. Updated model guidance and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations tomorrow morning will resolve the precise peak.