Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models points to daytime maxima of 36–38°C in Chengdu on July 15 amid the Sichuan Basin’s subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (70–80%) and afternoon convective clouds often cap extreme heating. Trader probabilities peak at 38°C (27.5%) with notable weight on 37–39°C outcomes, reflecting model disagreement on cloud cover, scattered showers, and steering patterns that could suppress or allow brief peaks near 40°C. Historical July climatology shows frequent 35–38°C readings tempered by monsoon moisture, while any shift toward clearer skies or reduced precipitation would favor higher bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on July 15?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 15?
38°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$98,846 Обс.
$98,846 Обс.
Jul 15, 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$98,846 Обс.
$98,846 Обс.
Jul 15, 2026
31°C or below
$806 Обс.
No
32°C
$4,295 Обс.
No
33°C
$7,253 Обс.
No
34°C
$8,335 Обс.
No
35°C
$10,488 Обс.
No
36°C
$8,404 Обс.
No
37°C
$21,830 Обс.
No
38°C
$10,622 Обс.
Yes
39°C
$11,427 Обс.
No
40°C
$6,149 Обс.
No
41°C or higher
$9,237 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models points to daytime maxima of 36–38°C in Chengdu on July 15 amid the Sichuan Basin’s subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (70–80%) and afternoon convective clouds often cap extreme heating. Trader probabilities peak at 38°C (27.5%) with notable weight on 37–39°C outcomes, reflecting model disagreement on cloud cover, scattered showers, and steering patterns that could suppress or allow brief peaks near 40°C. Historical July climatology shows frequent 35–38°C readings tempered by monsoon moisture, while any shift toward clearer skies or reduced precipitation would favor higher bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$98,846Дата завершення
Jul 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models points to daytime maxima of 36–38°C in Chengdu on July 15 amid the Sichuan Basin’s subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (70–80%) and afternoon convective clouds often cap extreme heating. Trader probabilities peak at 38°C (27.5%) with notable weight on 37–39°C outcomes, reflecting model disagreement on cloud cover, scattered showers, and steering patterns that could suppress or allow brief peaks near 40°C. Historical July climatology shows frequent 35–38°C readings tempered by monsoon moisture, while any shift toward clearer skies or reduced precipitation would favor higher bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$98,846Дата завершення
Jul 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models points to daytime maxima of 36–38°C in Chengdu on July 15 amid the Sichuan Basin’s subtropical monsoon regime, where high humidity (70–80%) and afternoon convective clouds often cap extreme heating. Trader probabilities peak at 38°C (27.5%) with notable weight on 37–39°C outcomes, reflecting model disagreement on cloud cover, scattered showers, and steering patterns that could suppress or allow brief peaks near 40°C. Historical July climatology shows frequent 35–38°C readings tempered by monsoon moisture, while any shift toward clearer skies or reduced precipitation would favor higher bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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