Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 30°C in Guangzhou on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and preliminary observations at Baiyun International Airport showing daytime peaks reaching exactly 30°C under persistent cloudy skies. These conditions limited solar insolation and convective heating despite warmer-than-average April trends (historical highs around 26°C), with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF aligning on subdued maxima due to high humidity and light winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting surface temperatures to 31°C via enhanced shortwave radiation, or post hoc data revisions from quality-controlled measurements—though final CMA reports expected post-midnight make shifts unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 18?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 18?
30°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$37,968 Обс.
$37,968 Обс.
Apr 18, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$37,968 Обс.
$37,968 Обс.
Apr 18, 2026
28°C or below
$8,462 Обс.
No
29°C
$5,678 Обс.
No
30°C
$5,972 Обс.
Yes
31°C
$3,711 Обс.
No
32°C
$3,118 Обс.
No
33°C
$2,437 Обс.
No
34°C
$1,796 Обс.
No
35°C
$3,299 Обс.
No
36°C
$1,051 Обс.
No
37°C
$1,198 Обс.
No
38°C or higher
$1,247 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 30°C in Guangzhou on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and preliminary observations at Baiyun International Airport showing daytime peaks reaching exactly 30°C under persistent cloudy skies. These conditions limited solar insolation and convective heating despite warmer-than-average April trends (historical highs around 26°C), with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF aligning on subdued maxima due to high humidity and light winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting surface temperatures to 31°C via enhanced shortwave radiation, or post hoc data revisions from quality-controlled measurements—though final CMA reports expected post-midnight make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$37,968Дата завершення
Apr 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 30°C in Guangzhou on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and preliminary observations at Baiyun International Airport showing daytime peaks reaching exactly 30°C under persistent cloudy skies. These conditions limited solar insolation and convective heating despite warmer-than-average April trends (historical highs around 26°C), with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF aligning on subdued maxima due to high humidity and light winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting surface temperatures to 31°C via enhanced shortwave radiation, or post hoc data revisions from quality-controlled measurements—though final CMA reports expected post-midnight make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$37,968Дата завершення
Apr 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 30°C in Guangzhou on April 18, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts and preliminary observations at Baiyun International Airport showing daytime peaks reaching exactly 30°C under persistent cloudy skies. These conditions limited solar insolation and convective heating despite warmer-than-average April trends (historical highs around 26°C), with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF aligning on subdued maxima due to high humidity and light winds. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing boosting surface temperatures to 31°C via enhanced shortwave radiation, or post hoc data revisions from quality-controlled measurements—though final CMA reports expected post-midnight make shifts unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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