Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 12?
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,548 Обс.
$41,548 Обс.
May 12, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
Yes
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,548 Обс.
$41,548 Обс.
May 12, 2026
17°C or below
$3,668 Обс.
No
18°C
$542 Обс.
No
19°C
$743 Обс.
No
20°C
$1,161 Обс.
No
21°C
$3,379 Обс.
No
22°C
$8,668 Обс.
No
23°C
$5,695 Обс.
No
24°C
$4,919 Обс.
No
25°C
$3,471 Обс.
No
26°C
$3,623 Обс.
No
27°C or higher
$5,678 Обс.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 10, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Обсяг
$41,548Дата завершення
May 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 10, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$41,548Дата завершення
May 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 10, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 27°C or higher as virtually certain for Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 27-28°C under persistent high-pressure ridging and mostly sunny skies. Morning observations at Istanbul Atatürk Airport (LTBA) already show temperatures climbing from 17°C at dawn to the low 20s by midday, aligning with rapid diurnal warming typical for May's climatological norms—averaging 21°C but exceeding that amid this season's above-normal warmth. Model ensembles exhibit tight agreement on peak heat between 1400-1600 UTC, with minimal cloud interference. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen sea breeze surge from the Bosphorus cooling urban heat islands or a late-afternoon model bust, though probabilities remain under 1% per current data. Evening MGM bulletins will confirm the official max.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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