Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$175,677 Обс.
$175,677 Обс.
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$175,677 Обс.
$175,677 Обс.
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
$5,396 Обс.
No
20°C
$4,274 Обс.
No
21°C
$8,572 Обс.
No
22°C
$22,531 Обс.
No
23°C
$23,331 Обс.
No
24°C
$30,999 Обс.
No
25°C
$21,867 Обс.
Yes
26°C
$23,097 Обс.
No
27°C
$13,987 Обс.
No
28°C
$10,944 Обс.
No
29°C or higher
$10,677 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$175,677Дата завершення
May 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$175,677Дата завершення
May 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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