Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on July 20 will likely reach 36–38°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. This aligns with the market's leading 37°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus around that threshold. Historical July averages near 33°C provide baseline context, while the urban heat island effect in central Madrid can add 1–2°C locally. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential minor shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, with AEMET updates and final model runs expected to refine resolution criteria over the next 48 hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on July 20?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 20?
36°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$77,343 Обс.
$77,343 Обс.
Jul 20, 2026
32°C or below
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$77,343 Обс.
$77,343 Обс.
Jul 20, 2026
32°C or below
$486 Обс.
No
33°C
$546 Обс.
No
34°C
$5,356 Обс.
No
35°C
$14,408 Обс.
No
36°C
$26,937 Обс.
Yes
37°C
$12,486 Обс.
No
38°C
$10,091 Обс.
No
39°C
$4,010 Обс.
No
40°C
$1,590 Обс.
No
41°C
$992 Обс.
No
42°C or higher
$442 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on July 20 will likely reach 36–38°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. This aligns with the market's leading 37°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus around that threshold. Historical July averages near 33°C provide baseline context, while the urban heat island effect in central Madrid can add 1–2°C locally. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential minor shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, with AEMET updates and final model runs expected to refine resolution criteria over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 18, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$77,343Дата завершення
Jul 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 18, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on July 20 will likely reach 36–38°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. This aligns with the market's leading 37°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus around that threshold. Historical July averages near 33°C provide baseline context, while the urban heat island effect in central Madrid can add 1–2°C locally. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential minor shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, with AEMET updates and final model runs expected to refine resolution criteria over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$77,343Дата завершення
Jul 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 18, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on July 20 will likely reach 36–38°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and subsidence warming. This aligns with the market's leading 37°C outcome at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model consensus around that threshold. Historical July averages near 33°C provide baseline context, while the urban heat island effect in central Madrid can add 1–2°C locally. Short-range uncertainty remains due to potential minor shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, with AEMET updates and final model runs expected to refine resolution criteria over the next 48 hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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