**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo daily maximum of 27–28°C on August 3, 2026.** Forecasters attribute this positioning to lingering cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit daytime heating under a strengthening Pacific High, despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures across Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows early-August highs near 36°C in recent model runs, yet uncertainty in the timing of any breaks in cloud or localized rain keeps the distribution centered on the mid- to upper-20s. Historical climatology places average August maxima around 31°C, so traders are weighting short-term mesoscale influences—such as potential sea-breeze effects and modest model spread in the 48-hour window—more heavily than the long-range warmth signal. Updated JMA and global ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
27°C 38%
28°C 26%
26°C 24%
29°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
24%
27°C
38%
28°C
26%
29°C
9%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 38%
28°C 26%
26°C 24%
29°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
$210 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$215 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$660 Обс.
2%
25°C
$52 Обс.
6%
26°C
$84 Обс.
24%
27°C
$644 Обс.
38%
28°C
$42 Обс.
26%
29°C
$42 Обс.
9%
30°C
$57 Обс.
3%
31°C
$110 Обс.
1%
32°C or higher
$120 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo daily maximum of 27–28°C on August 3, 2026.** Forecasters attribute this positioning to lingering cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit daytime heating under a strengthening Pacific High, despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures across Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows early-August highs near 36°C in recent model runs, yet uncertainty in the timing of any breaks in cloud or localized rain keeps the distribution centered on the mid- to upper-20s. Historical climatology places average August maxima around 31°C, so traders are weighting short-term mesoscale influences—such as potential sea-breeze effects and modest model spread in the 48-hour window—more heavily than the long-range warmth signal. Updated JMA and global ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,237Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo daily maximum of 27–28°C on August 3, 2026.** Forecasters attribute this positioning to lingering cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit daytime heating under a strengthening Pacific High, despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures across Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows early-August highs near 36°C in recent model runs, yet uncertainty in the timing of any breaks in cloud or localized rain keeps the distribution centered on the mid- to upper-20s. Historical climatology places average August maxima around 31°C, so traders are weighting short-term mesoscale influences—such as potential sea-breeze effects and modest model spread in the 48-hour window—more heavily than the long-range warmth signal. Updated JMA and global ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,237Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo daily maximum of 27–28°C on August 3, 2026.** Forecasters attribute this positioning to lingering cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit daytime heating under a strengthening Pacific High, despite the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal temperatures across Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance shows early-August highs near 36°C in recent model runs, yet uncertainty in the timing of any breaks in cloud or localized rain keeps the distribution centered on the mid- to upper-20s. Historical climatology places average August maxima around 31°C, so traders are weighting short-term mesoscale influences—such as potential sea-breeze effects and modest model spread in the 48-hour window—more heavily than the long-range warmth signal. Updated JMA and global ensemble guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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